The latest survey from JMC Analytics and Polling finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in Florida by four percentage points.
The poll says Trump leads with Florida men 48 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent, but Clinton has no advantage with Florida women: She and Trump are deadlocked at 44 percent each.
Trump leads Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent in the critical swing state among likely voters overall.
Forty-two percent approve of Trump’s immigration policies, whereas 40 percent oppose them. “[T]here was considerable racial and partisan variation, with Republicans strongly in favor 62-20 percent, white Democrats and blacks strongly opposed, and Hispanics were evenly divided (40-39 percent in favor),” the pollsters found.
The Hispanic voter breakdown is more complex.
“While polls have shown that Trump is weak among Hispanic voters, the reality is more complicated in Florida, where the partisan breakdown of likely Hispanic voters is 39-31 percent Democratic/Republican (30 percent are not affiliated with the two major parties),” pollsters found.
“Those of Hispanic origin in South Florida (particularly Miami-Dade) are historically Republican, while the growing Hispanic population in Central Florida is Democratic, but not unanimously nor consistently so. In this poll, Clinton has a narrow 44-42 percent lead over Trump among this demographic, largely due to Donald Trump’s having a 74-11 percent lead among Hispanic Republicans.”
Seventy-six percent of Florida Republicans back Trump, and support is boosted by white independent voters, who favor Trump over Clinton by 53 percent to 34 percent. Clinton has the support of 68 percent of Florida Democrats, while 17 percent do not support her. Sixty-six of white Florida Democrats support her and 23 percent do not.
The survey was conducted between September 7 and 8, and received 781 complete responses, with a 3.5 percent margin of error. Forty-three percent of respondents were Democrats, 39 percent Republicans, and 18 percent independent registered voters.