The Sept. 20 Breitbart/Gravis poll shows that Hillary Clinton has not yet locked down a high percentage of her likely supporters, Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell told Breitbart News.
The poll of 1,560 likely voters showed Clinton leading her GOP rival Donald J. Trump with 44 percent to his 40 percent, just outside the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error. In a prior poll conducted Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, Clinton led the New York City developer, 43 percent to 40 percent.
At this stage of the campaign, supporters truly committed to a candidate adopt the candidate’s world view and agenda as their own, which is why you see extreme alignment among Trump voters, he said. The Clinton campaign has for whatever reason been unable to forge that same bond with its own supporters, he said.
One example of a gap between Clinton and her supporters is created by President Barack Obama’s unpopular deal with Iran, Caddell said. “It was 46-37 disapproved, OK?,” he said. “It is very highly disapproved by the undecideds, who look like movable voters–but, what is interesting is that it is 60-11 as to whether Iran is already cheating on this agreement.”
Caddell said the Democrats completely miscalculated the politics of Iran deal, but the Republicans have not moved to exploit the opportunity either. “It is staring them in the eyes,” he said.
“If you take out the independents out of the Iran deal question, who disapprove 55-45, and if you are left with what I’ll call the ‘committed opinion,’ [which] is 85 percent saying Iran is already cheating on the deal,” he said.
“Looking at Clinton supporters, they claim to be 78 percent approve and 9 percent disapprove,” he said.
[But when] asked if Iran will cheat, 50 percent of Clinton supporters said they were unsure, now that’s ridiculous, OK? When you get 50 percent of your partisan group saying ‘unsure,’ it means they don’t want to admit something that is not good, when it is raised to them.
Clinton supporters, who claim to support the Iran Nuclear Deal, should be saying: No, the Iranians will not cheat, he said. “Only 22 percent of Clinton supporters say the Iranians are not cheating,”the Fox News Insider said. Among Trump supporters, 2 percent said Iran will not cheat on the nuclear deal and 94 percent said Iran will cheat.
“Then, when you move to the question of bringing in refugees, 60 percent of committed opinion is opposed to an increase,” the pollster said.
On the question about the president’s plan to bring 110,000 refugees into the U.S., up from 85,000, 56 percent opposed in the general sample and 29 percent approved.
The pollster, who advised three straight Democratic presidential nominees in 1972, 1976, and 1980, and then finished a close second in 1984, said, “Twenty-one percent of Clinton supporters oppose an increase in refugees–that’s a fifth of her vote.”
Asked about Clinton’s plan increase the number of Syrian refugees from 10,000 to 65,000, 59 percent of respondents disapproved and 25 percent approved, taken from the whole sample population. “With Clinton’s proposal to bring in more Syrian refugees it is even worse, 70 percent of committed opinion oppose her proposal and that is stunning,” he said.
Taking those issues, the Iran deal and the plans to bring in more refugees from Syria and from other places, Trump and Republicans have the advantage of agreeing with the majority of Americans, he said.
The same goes for issues such as the country’s direction and position in the world, he said.
Only 29 percent of respondents said the country was going in the right direction and 50 percent said it is going in the wrong direction, he said. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters said the country’s direction was neither right or wrong, 61 percent said it was going the right direction and 9 percent said America was going in the wrong direction.
Similarly, 54 percent said America’s place in the world is weaker today than it was 10 years ago and 28 percent say it is stronger, he said. Among Clinton supporters, 55 percent said America was stronger than 10 years ago, 19 percent weaker and 26 percent the same.
Only 6 percent of Trump supporter said America was in the same position it was in 10 years, with 92 percents saying weaker and 3 percent saying stronger.
These policies, such at Syrian and other refugees and the Iran Deal are Clinton policies, but they are really policies of President Barack Obama, Caddell said.
In a a change election, Clinton made the decision to run as the incumbent or as the president’s third term, but even her own voters are yearning for a change and expressing an unease, Caddell said.
While Obama skates, Clinton is the one on the campaign trail taking ownership of the president’s policies, he said.
The Sept. 20 Breitbart/Gravis poll exposes critical disconnects between Clinton’s supporters and the rest of the electorate, as well as fissures among her own supporters, he said.
“It is incredible, 97 percent of Hillary’s voters approve of the president’s job performance,” he said. Among the rest of the voters only 49 percent approve or strongly approve of Obama’s job performance.
But, while his policies are unpopular, because Republicans have refrained from attacking him, the president’s has become detached from his own agenda, he said. “They have not pursued him and they let him off the hook.”
Clinton should not get the same hall pass, he said.