A look at early voting and polling in Ohio shows Hillary Clinton leading among early voters but Donald Trump surging with Election Day voters, with the Democrats struggling to hold onto their working class base.
The Columbus Dispatch reports the race in Ohio is “too close to call,” with Clinton narrowly leading Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in a poll with a 2.9 percent margin of error among 1,151 registered voters. Among those with a union member in their household, Clinton only leads Trump 50 percent to 45 percent.
Trump also leads with first-time voters, with 57 percent backing him. Clinton and Trump are statistically tied with voters aged 18 to 24, at 51 percent and 49 percent respectively. Clinton leads with voters between the ages of 25 and 44, and Trump has the 75 years and older vote locked up.
The Dispatch’s poll also found 36 percent of voters surveyed already cast their ballots. Among those who voted early, Clinton leads by ten percentage points.
Another Ohio poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov finds Trump leading Clinton by one percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a race that also includes third-party candidates. Their poll, which collected responses from 1,189 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, found 19 percent of respondents had already voted in Ohio. Of those who had not yet cast a ballot, 84 percent said they plan to vote on Election Day.
Enthusiasms are running high: 73 percent said they “can’t wait to vote,” and 97 percent said their presidential choice was strong or very strong. Another 69 percent said they will wait in line “as long as it takes” to vote.
And enthusiasm appears to be on Trump’s side: Asked, “how do you feel about voting for Donald Trump compared to past Presidential candidates you’ve supported,” 55 percent of Trump supporters said they are more enthusiastic about him than past GOP presidential candidates. But only 32 percent of Clinton supporters said the same about her, with a plurality, 37 percent said they are less enthusiastic.
Whether or not those numbers will translate into a win or defeat for either candidate in Ohio remains to be seen. While 75 percent of Democrats say they plan to vote on Election Day, 85 percent of independents and 89 percent of Republicans plan to cast their ballots then. A quarter of Democratic voters already sent in their ballots, explaining Clinton’s lead in early voting. White voters back Trump over Clinton 53 percent to 37 percent, while black voters support Clinton 95 percent to four percent. About 31 percent of black voters cast their ballots early, and 68 percent plan to vote on Election Day. Among white voters, only 13 percent voted early and 86 percent plan to vote on Election Day. Ohio’s demographics show the state is 85 percent white, 11.5 percent black, and 1.9 percent Hispanic.
YouGov states early voters (19 percent of those surveyed) ultimately favored Clinton over Trump 63 percent to 33 percent. But among the overwhelming majority of voters who have yet to cast their ballots, Trump leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent. Trump has also taken a strong lead among independents, 51 percent to 32 percent.
Election Day turnout will determine whether or not Trump takes Ohio and its 18 electoral votes.