RALEIGH, North Carolina — Veteran pollster Frank Luntz told Breitbart News on Monday afternoon before a Donald Trump rally at the J.S. Dorton arena that he thinks the election will come down to four states: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Luntz told Breitbart News: “Those are states Trump can win and has to win.”
Breitbart News asked Luntz specifically about Nevada, where early voting results reportedly favor Democrats, and there are anecdotal reports of high Latino turnout. Is it possible for Trump to lose Nevada and pick up one or two blue states elsewhere?
“I don’t believe he will,” Luntz said.
Trump was scheduled to speak in North Carolina as the second stop of a five-state spring to the finish in the 2016 campaign.
He spoke at a Sarasota, Florida rally earlier on Monday, and is scheduled to speak in Scranton, Pennsylvania; Manchester, New Hampshire; and Grand Rapids, Michigan before the end of the day.
According to Luntz’s analysis, only two of those three are viable options for Trump. However, moments before he spoke, Trump’s campaign manager, veteran pollster Kellyanne Conway, tweeted the results of a poll that have Trump one point ahead of Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania.
Trump 48% (+1)
— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) November 7, 2016
Trump’s current strategy appears to be to poach a blue state from the Democratic column. Both the Trump and Clinton campaigns are fighting hard in Michigan and Pennsylvania, suggesting those are the most likely targets.
Early voting totals in several other states appear to favor Trump, as do opinion polls, especially in Ohio. Conventional wisdom holds that no Republican can win the White House without the Buckeye State.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News. His new book, See No Evil: 19 Hard Truths the Left Can’t Handle, is available from Regnery through Amazon. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.