Latest Hill Poll: More Bad News for Obama

The latest poll from The Hill could spell trouble for President Obama and the Democrats' messaging during their convention. The poll, conducted September 2, 2012, is a national survey of 1000 likely voters. There are several very interesting results that deserve to be highlighted.

When asked whether they felt President Obama deserved to be re-elected, based solely on his job performance, 54% of respondents felt he did not deserve to be re-elected while 40% felt he did. Among women, 51% thought the president did not deserve to be re-elected with 40% saying he deserves to be re-elected. Interestingly, the results were not significantly different among 18-39 year olds. Those are very poor results from two demographics Team Obama is counting on in this election cycle. 

On the question of the President's handling of the economy, 58% were not at all or not very satisfied. The results were similar between both men and women, as well as 18-39 year-olds. 

Respondents were asked whether they feel the country is in better/worse condition than it was four years ago. 52% say the country is worse off while 15% say it is about the same. Only 31% of likely voters feel the country is better off than it was four years ago. As with the other results, there is not a significant difference of opinion between males, females, and 18-39 year-olds.

Respondents were also asked who they thought would win the election. Mitt Romney led with 46% believing he would win, 43% thought President Obama would win, and 11% weren't sure. 

As Rick Wilson correctly points out, one of the key design parameters of this survey is that it does not use 2008 as a model. 

These numbers are not good for Team Obama, so there is little doubt this survey will be discounted and/or buried by the media in their joint operation with Obama's campaign.


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