The latest poll from The Hill could spell trouble for President Obama and the Democrats' messaging during their convention. The poll, conducted September 2, 2012, is a national survey of 1000 likely voters. There are several very interesting results that deserve to be highlighted.
When asked whether they felt President Obama deserved to be re-elected, based solely on his job performance, 54% of respondents felt he did not deserve to be re-elected while 40% felt he did. Among women, 51% thought the president did not deserve to be re-elected with 40% saying he deserves to be re-elected. Interestingly, the results were not significantly different among 18-39 year olds. Those are very poor results from two demographics Team Obama is counting on in this election cycle.
On the question of the President's handling of the economy, 58% were not at all or not very satisfied. The results were similar between both men and women, as well as 18-39 year-olds.
Respondents were asked whether they feel the country is in better/worse condition than it was four years ago. 52% say the country is worse off while 15% say it is about the same. Only 31% of likely voters feel the country is better off than it was four years ago. As with the other results, there is not a significant difference of opinion between males, females, and 18-39 year-olds.
Respondents were also asked who they thought would win the election. Mitt Romney led with 46% believing he would win, 43% thought President Obama would win, and 11% weren't sure.
As Rick Wilson correctly points out, one of the key design parameters of this survey is that it does not use 2008 as a model.
These numbers are not good for Team Obama, so there is little doubt this survey will be discounted and/or buried by the media in their joint operation with Obama's campaign.