The outcome of a new poll conducted jointly by the University of Connecticut and the Hartford Courant has found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by three points nationwide, 46-43%, and by 21 points in the state of Connecticut, 53-32%. The Connecticut state results, which are in sharp contrast to a poll performed by Quinnipiac University in August, demonstrate, according to UCONN/Courant researchers, that Connecticut is not a battleground state as had been reported previously by Politico.
The nationwide UCONN/Courant poll of 1,186 likely voters has a D+8 bias, with the sample identified as 48% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 12% Independent. With regard to ideology, 41% of the sample identified as Conservative, 40% as Moderate, and 19% as Liberal. 47% of those surveyed said they attended church once a week or more often.
The nationwide poll also surveyed voters according to their level of interest in the general election. Of significance is that the majority of those extremely interested in the general election said they would vote for Romney/Ryan over Obama/Biden, 52-43%, while 48-28% of those somewhat/not very interested said they would vote for Obama/Biden over Romney/Ryan. This statistic, if accurate, supports what many conservatives have asserted for quite some time: that those who are disinterested and, consequently, uninformed, are more likely to vote for Obama.
According to the nationwide UCONN/Courant poll, the “Mediscare” tactics of the Democrats would appear to have failed, as 48% of those aged 65 and over said they would vote for Romney/Ryan versus 41% for Obama/Biden. The poll finds that more males would vote for Romney over Obama, 47-40%, but Obama would win with females over Romney, 53-39%.
“One of the most interesting things about this race is that while it’s close, most voters expect Obama to win,”said UCONN poll director Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the university’s Department of Public Policy. According to the poll, 52% say Obama will win, while 27% believe Romney will win.
“That’s the X factor for Obama right now,” Dineen said. “If Democrats can convince voters that Obama’s re-election is inevitable, Republicans who are less enthusiastic about Romney are more likely to stay home on Election Day.”
A sample of 508 likely voters was used for the Connecticut poll. The outcome of a 21-point lead of Obama over Romney differs significantly from the earlier Quinnipiac poll, which showed that Obama was leading Romney by only seven points, 52-45%. The Q-poll survey was performed on 1,472 likely voters.
The UCONN/Courant Connecticut poll has drawn significant skepticism and even ridicule from conservative commentators across the state, primarily for two reasons. First, the poll indicates that 21% of Connecticut voters who call themselves “conservative” would vote for Barack Obama. Second, the poll oversamples Democrats and does not account for the fact that the largest voting bloc in the state of Connecticut is that of Unaffiliated Voters.
Connecticut conservative talk show host Dan Lovallo explains why he finds the poll skewed:
A conservative blogger identified as "Steve M" of Connecticut’s RadioVice Online writes:
In 2008, Obama/Biden beat McCain/Palin by 22.3 percent. All things equal between 2008 and current day, the poll sample assumes 1 percent more of the voters will vote Democrat and 3.5 percent fewerwill vote Republican in 2012.
Though analyzing details of polls may seem tedious, for this election it is essential since, as we are seeing, media are using polls- some with highly unlikely findings- to influence the get out the vote effort. Keep aware.