Dead Heat: Romney Leads Iowa by One Point in R+1 Poll

The Iowa Republican, an influential website for all things Iowa politics, and Voter/Consumer Research, a polling firm, conducted a poll in Iowa composed of 36 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats, and 30 percent no-party voters.

And in the R+1 poll, Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama in Iowa by one point, 47% to 46%. Defenders of the poll says its composition more accurately reflects the turnout will be in 2012, an election with less enthusiasm for Obama than in 2008. 

Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, the founder of Voter/Consumer Research, addressed the makeup of recent polls that have oversampled Democrats. For example, the most recent Marist poll of Iowa had a D+7 sample, and Obama led by 8 points in that poll. In 2008, Democrats had a one-point advantage over Republicans in Iowa on election night. 

“There is an ongoing public debate over media pollsters not weighting their data by party, thus producing samples that are too Democratic,” van Lohuizen said.  “The TIR/VCR poll is weighted by party, but Republicans are weighted down by over a couple of points.”

In the poll, 51% thought Romney would "do the best job of managing the economy." Forty-three percent thought Obama would. When asked which candidate would be better at creating jobs, 48% of those polled favored Romney while 44 percent preferred Obama. When asked which candidate would be better at balancing the budget and reducing the deficit, Iowans favored Romney by 12 points over Obama, 49% to 37%.  

According to the poll, the top issues on the minds of Iowa's voters were the budget/deficit (31 percent), jobs (25 percent), the economy (25 percent), and leadership skills (25 percent).

Early voting started in Iowa on Thursday, and Voter/Consumer Research polled 500 registered voters by live telephone interviews between September 23 and September 25. The poll's margin of error of is /- 4.4 percentage points. 

According to the poll, the top issues on the minds of Iowa's voters were the budget/deficit (31 percent), jobs (25 percent), the economy (25 percent), and leadership skills (25 percent).

Early voting started in Iowa on Thursday, and Voter/Consumer Research polled 500 registered voters by live telephone interviews between September 23 and September 25. The poll's margin of error of is /- 4.4 percentage points. 


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