Pew: Romney Takes 4 Point Lead, Beats Obama on Favorability

In a breathtaking turnaround, Governor Mitt Romney has erased is 8 point deficit in a Pew poll taken in mid-September, and is now four points ahead of the president, 49-45%. It's important to note that this poll is of likely voters and was taken after Romney obliterated Obama n their first debate. Also, of the four days in the poll sample, three of those include the Friday jobs report.

The poll's internals all look very good for Romney:

He's tied with Obama among registered voters, 46-46%. In September, Obama was ahead, 51-42%.

67% of Romney's support is strong, up from 56%.  This ties him with Obama. But in the area of intensity or "given a lot of thought to the election,"  Romney has a 15 point lead:  82-65%.

The worst two data points for Obama, however, are these:

Obama has lost his advantage among women. Both are tied at 47%. Last month Obama had an 18% advantage.

Obama's even lost his favorability advantage. Romney's hit 50%, Obama's sunk to 49%.

What we're seeing in many polls -- both state and national --  is Obama slipping further below the 50% mark. Post-convention, Obama was at or near that vital (for an incumbent) marker pretty frequently. Now we're seeing him at 45%, 47%, 48% again. Today's Gallup tracking poll put Obama at 50%, but that's registered voters. Which means he's probably at  47% or 48%.

Thirty days out and polling at these numbers is the last place an incumbent wants to be.

One note of warning. This sample of likely voters has a R+3 skew, which feels optimistic to me.

 

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC


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“Every Asian market outside Sri Lanka retreated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said a premature withdrawal of quantitative easing would put the U.S. economic recovery at risk,” Jonathan Burgos reports. What does this say about the US and, in particular, the policies of the Federal Open Market Committee, which are pretty much identical?

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