November Surprise: Brown Leads Warren by 1 in MA

Just days after most Massachusetts political pundits had declared Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren the victor in Tuesday's election battle with incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown, a new University of Massachusetts-Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows the two are statistically tied on the eve of the election.

 Among likely voters, Brown now leads by 1 point, but that's within the margin of error:

The bruising Massachusetts Senate battle between Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren is deadlocked just hours before Election Day, with both the candidates and the voters suffering from a barrage of attack ads, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll reveals.

The poll shows Brown holding a 49-48 percent advantage over Warren among likely voters, dispelling earlier polls and Democratic claims of a small Warren lead. The one-point lead is well within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error.

Brown held a four-point lead among likely voters in a UMass Lowell/Herald poll in mid-September, but the Harvard Law professor has closed that gap as more Democratic voters have moved to her side...

Among the 956 registered voters who responded to the poll, Warren is leading 49-47 percent, but with just a day before the election, the likely voter numbers are considered a more reliable barometer...

While Warren is counting on a huge surge of support from voters turning out for President Obama, the poll shows 16 percent of Obama voters backing the Republican incumbent.

With this final poll showing the race a toss up, the race may turn on Ms. Warren's recent unforced error, where she curtly told a reporter for a local Massachusetts television station that though she had photographs that displayed her Native American heritage, "I have plenty of pictures. They're not for you."


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