Democrats Tout Polls Which Oversampled Democrats
Several polls were released this week which showed just how vulnerable President Obama has become since he concocted a "war on women" to distract from higher gas prices. In response, the media is burying it, and progressives are clinging to the findings of another poll released late this week which shows Obama ahead. Unfortunately, the sampling is flawed, as Democrats are way overrepresented. Ed Morrissey notes:
You know what else in this poll is similar to Reuters and Pew? The composition of the sample. NJ didn’t provide a link to the data in its article, but supplied it to me on request — and the D/R/I is about what you’d expect. The sample gives Democrats an eight-point advantage, 34/26/35, which both overstates independents and vastly underrepresents Republicans. Even in 2008, when Democrats surged to the polls after eight years of George W. Bush, the exit polls showed a seven-point advantage for Democrats, 39/32, which mirrored Obama’s seven-point victory in the popular vote. In 2010′s midterms, exit polls showed a 35/35/30 split, which means that either the poll undersampled Republicans by six or nine points, depending on which turnout model one presumes this general election will most closely resemble. On top of that, the approval numbers are based on general-population adults, not the subsample of registered voters.
Not the best argument against polls which did have an equal representation in comparison.