Media Watch: Michael Barone Skeptical of Skewed Media Polls
Let's see Politico and Dave Weigel make fun of Michael Barone:
That, many conservatives are arguing, is what pollsters have been getting in polls this month. They point out that Mitt Romney is running ahead among Independents in many polls but trails overall.
This can only happen if Democrats have a big lead in party identification, as they did in 2008. In the exit poll then, 39 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats and 32 percent as Republicans.
In contrast, exit polls showed an even break on party identification in 2004 and 2010. But many September polls and some earlier polls showed Democrats with an even bigger party identification lead than four years before.
That seems implausible. Party identification does change over time, as exit polls indicate. But it usually shifts gradually rather than suddenly, as current polls suggest.
There is evidence that since the Charlotte convention Democrats have become more motivated to vote and have narrowed the advantage in enthusiasm Republicans have had since 2010. In that case, more Democrats may be passing through screening questions and getting polled.
I don't believe that any of the media pollsters have been tilting their results in order to demoralize Republicans, though I do look with suspicion on the work of some partisan pollsters.
But I do have my doubts about whether samples with more Democratic party identification than in 2008 are accurate representations of the actual electorate. Many states with party registration have shown big drops in registered Democrats since then.
If you believe all the media polls, you believe Obama will meet or best his turnout advantage from the perfect storm of 2008. Period. End of story.
But our media Turnout-Truthers just call the rest of us crazy for not believing that and then hide like cowards behind the idea that all pollsters are honest and accurate.
What these Turnout Truthers do not do, however, is explain why they believe Obama's generating the same amount of excitement as he did in 2008, or more -- when that's what these polls are telling us in order to give Obama insurmountable leads.
The funny thing is that these poll defenders call themselves journalists but like lemmings accept at face value everything that's soon-fed to them. At the same time, they mock those of us asking questions.
Who are the journalists again?
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