This morning's key headlines from
GenerationalDynamics.com
- Labor unions shut down Greece for 48 hours in anti-austerity strike
- Seven more Syrian generals defect to Turkey
- The Butterfly Effect and the presidential election
Labor unions shut down Greece for 48 hours in anti-austerity strike
An elderly man marches with protesters in front of the Greek parliament on Tuesday (AFP)
Greece's trade unions launched a general strike and nationwide
protests on Tuesday against a new package of austerity measures that
are being demanded by European leaders as a condition for Greece to
receive its next bailout payment, in time to avoid going bankrupt in
mid-November. Hundreds of thousands of people marched across the
country, creating a major political crisis for prime minister Antonis
Samaras, who must get agreement on these austerity cuts by the
weekend. There have been numerous defections from Samaras' governing
coalition, but at latest count, the austerity bill is expected to
receive 160 out of 300 votes, enough to win passage. AP and Spiegel
Seven more Syrian generals defect to Turkey
Seven generals in the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
defected to Turkey on Tuesday, along with their families. This brings
the total number of Syrian generals in Turkey to 42. There are now
111,890 Syrian refugees living in Turkey in 14 refugee camps built
along the Syrian border, where they are fed three meals a day, and
where health, security, financial access, communication, social
activity, and educational needs are addressed.
Today's Zaman (Ankara)
The Butterfly Effect and the presidential election
As I'm writing this, early on Tuesday evening ET, it's not yet known
who won the presidential election, but I've heard several pundits say
that last week Romney had a great deal of momentum that was stopped
and partially reversed by hurricane Sandy. This means that if Obama
wins, then it will be at least partially due to the weather.
Most readers will have heard of the "Butterfly Effect" in Chaos
Theory, which says that a butterfly flapping its wings in China might
cause a chain reaction that turns into a hurricane in North America.
So if Obama does win, then we might speculate whether Obama can credit
his victory to some Chinese butterfly - the Butterfly Effect.
This is a charming way of looking at it, but it's quite significant
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics forecasting. (See
"Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology")
Long-time readers may have noticed that there have been thousands of
predictions on my web site, but never predictions about the results of
an election. That's because Chaos Theory tells us that it's
impossible to predict the results of an election with any certainty,
because of the Butterfly Effect. The tiniest event -- a gaffe during
a speech, a traffic accident, a sex scandal, or a butterfly flapping
its wings -- can change the election results, and prove the
predictions wrong.
Generational Dynamics forecasting distinguishes between "trend events"
and "chaotic events." Trend events are those determined by large
masses of people, entire generations of people, based on long-term
irreversible trends. Chaotic events are those that can change
direction rapidly, as the result of a tiny unforeseen accident.
That's why generational forecasting theory carefully distinguishes
between chaotic and trend events, and makes predictions only on the
latter. Besides election results, other examples of chaotic events are
next month's weather and next month's stock prices. Trying to predict
chaotic events may be fun, but you'll probably be wrong half the time.
And I always like to point out that it's easy to get a million
predictions right -- just make two million predictions.
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