World View: Egypt's Mohamed Morsi Big Winner in Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel-Hamas agreement leaves many details unspecified
- Islamic Jihad confirms that the Gaza missiles were supplied by iran
- The winners: Mohamed Morsi, Khaled Meshaal; the losers: Mahmoud Abbas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
- Hamas celebrates Tel Aviv bus bombing
- Turkey asks Nato for Patriot missiles for border with Syria
Israel-Hamas agreement leaves many details unspecified
Celebrations in Gaza over the cease fire agreement
There's a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Egypt-brokered
cease fire agreement signed by Israel and Hamas on Wednesday. The
signed agreement is one page long, though there are apparently
additional unstated agreements. As far as is known, here are the
Israeli forces and tanks have been camped on the border with Gaza for
several days, prepared for a ground invasion, and they are remaining
in place for the time being. Israel may reduce the size of the force
in the next few days, depending on how things turn out.
- Both sides agree to halt all hostilities, with Israel
desisting from incursions and targeting of individuals, while all
Palestinian factions should cease rocket fire and cross-border
- It says little about the Hamas demand to lift the blockade around
Gaza. It calls for an easing of some restrictions on Gaza residents,
but says that procedures for implementing them would be "dealt with
after 24 hours from the start of the ceasefire."
- It says nothing about the Israeli demand that Iran not be allowed
to re-arm Hamas with thousands of new missiles. However, there are
unconfirmed reports that the United States and Egypt are somehow
supposed to guarantee that missiles will flow into Gaza. How that
might happen is completely unexplained.
- Hamas is to enforce the ban on rocket fire into Israel, even by
other jihadist militias operating within Gaza. Hamas have never
succeeded in doing that before, so it's not clear how it will be done
There is considerable skepticism that the ceasefire will last long,
but for the time being, everyone is pretending to be optimistic.
Irish Times and LA Times
Islamic Jihad confirms that the Gaza missiles were supplied by Iran
Prior to the ceasefire, Islamic Jihad leader Ramadhan Abdallah Shalah
confirmed that the missiles were supplied by Iran:
"With regard to the Iranian position – even if we have
disagreements with Iran regarding the situation in Syria, I don’t
think that we, as the Palestinian resistance, have disagreements
with Iran regarding what is happening in Palestine, or regarding
the Zionist aggression against the Gaza Strip. With regard to
Palestine, we are in complete agreement with Iran. Iran has given
us all the aid and all the support. The weapons that are fighting
the Israeli aggression and arrogance in Palestine come mainly from
Iran, as the entire world knows. This is no secret. These are
either Iranian weapons or weapons financed by Iran."
Islamic Jihad Deputy Secretary-General Ziyad Nakhala said:
"We are on the brink of a great victory, Allah
willing. This is a new stage in the conflict with the Zionist
This wonderful weapon has proven its significant role in
battle. The missiles have changed the balance of power, and have
proven to Israel that we can shell their cities like they shell
ours, and that we can shell their military camps like they shell
our children. ...
These missiles have restored the honor of the Palestinian
people. We received these missiles from our allies and brothers in
the Islamic Republic. They have generally given us these missiles,
exerting great effort. These missiles have changed the equation in
The winners: Mohamed Morsi, Khaled Meshaal; the losers: Mahmoud Abbas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi emerged as the major winner in the
negotiation that ended with a peace agreement between Israel and
Hamas. Morsi was able to accomplish a lot more than the deposed
president Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak never particularly liked Hamas, and
he cooperated fully with Israel by keeping the border between Gaza and
Egypt sealed. But Hamas was originally an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, of which Morsi is a leading member, and from the start of
his presidency he made his sympathy for the Gazans clear. At the same
time, he maintained friendly, if distant, relations with Israel, and
adamantly refused to abrogate the 1979 peace treaty with Israel,
despite some domestic demands that he do so.
Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a major loser in the
negotiations. Erdogan strategy for several years has been to become
the leader in the Sunni Arab world, regaining some of the prestige
that Turkey once held as leader of the Ottoman Empire. Part of that
strategy has been to end normal relations with Israel, but that
strategy really backfired this past week, as it essentially
disqualified him as a negotiator between Israel and Hamas.
Another major loser was Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas is nominally the major negotiating partner with Israel in
negotiations for a two-state solution (Israel and Palestine) in the
Mideast, and is currently scheduled to come to the United Nations
General Assembly on November 29 to obtain recognition of a Palestinian
Instead, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has become something of a
superstar, and was seen frequently on Wednesday declaring victory over
Israel. Hamas has become "someone you can do business with."
Hamas celebrates Tel Aviv bus bombing
Prior to the ceasefire announcement, a terrorist bomb exploded on a
bus in Tel Aviv, injuring 23 people, one severely. Hamas did not take
credit for the bombing, but said: "Hamas blesses the attack in Tel
Aviv and sees it as a natural response to the Israeli massacres...in
Gaza." Jerusalem Post
Turkey asks Nato for Patriot missiles for border with Syria
Now that the Gaza problem has been "solved," it's time to start
focusing again on the conflict in Syria.
Nato member Turkey has asked Nato to provide advanced Patriot
missiles to be deployed on the border with Syria. Nato
ambassadors met on Wednesday to discuss the request "without delay."
The Patriot missile system performs the same function as Israel's Iron
Dome missile system in the Gaza war -- to intercept and knock down
incoming missiles. The Patriot system can also target aircraft.
According to Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:
"Such a deployment would augment Turkey’s air-defense
capabilities to defend the population and territory of Turkey. It
would contribute to the de-escalation of the crisis along NATO’s
The Patriot systems would not be supplied by Nato. They would be
supplied by the individual Nato members that actually have these
systems -- Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S.
Since Turkey already has a big air force, it's not clear what's
going on here. There have been stray mortar shells from Syria
landing in Turkey the last few weeks, and several people have been
killed, but Patriot missiles are not designed for stray mortar
There are two possible purposes for these Patriot missiles. One is to
help establish a no-fly zone over Syria. The other is for defense in
case of a Syrian attack, especially with chemical weapons. Turkey
says that neither of these is planned.
Whatever the intent, the introduction of a Patriot missile system
signals an escalation of the Syrian conflict, and greater Nato
involvement. Guardian (London) and BBC
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