This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War
- China steps up nationalistic war-like rhetoric
- China's historic mistake
- 146 lines, 1183 words, 7376 characters
China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War
China's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile
China's General Staff Headquarters issued a harsh directive on
Wednesday to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for war:
In 2013, the goal set for the entire army and the
People's Armed Police force is to bolster their capabilities to
fight and their ability to win a war... to be well-prepared for a
war by subjecting the army to hard and rigorous training on an
actual combat basis.
Although past directives have directed soldiers to be prepared in case
of war, this year's directive, for the first time, uses the Chinese
word "dazhang," which means "fighting war," and uses it 10 times in
the 1000 word directive.
Last month, China announced plans to board
and seize foreign ships in the South China Sea, starting in 2013, and
has been conducting naval drills with warships in preparation.
While the official directive does not mention Japan, various
commentaries makes clear that Japan is the would-be adversary.
VOA, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), China Military Online (Beijing), and People's Daily Online / Military (Beijing)
China steps up nationalistic war-like rhetoric
China's military budget has been increasing exponentially for years,
as I and others have reported, and this year it's finally paying off: China's military is deploying a large number of new warships,
tanks, missiles, submarines, and strike aircraft, much of it in
preparation for potential full-scale war with the United States.
include hundreds (and perhaps thousands) of mobile, nuclear ballistic
missiles targeting American cities and newly developed missiles
capable of striking and disabling American aircraft carriers. For the
first time in its modern history, China has the firepower to contest
control of disputed territory far from its coastal waters.
Flush with pride and confidence, senior officers in China's People's
Liberation Army (PLA) are using increasingly hawkish and nationalistic
rhetoric when discussing issues related to Japan or the United States.
Some of these officers call for "short, sharp wars" to assert China's
sovereignty, or to "strike first," "prepare for conflict," or "kill a
chicken to scare the monkeys."
The United States has mutual defense treaties with Japan, Taiwan,
the Philippines, and a number of other countries. The purpose of those
treaties, signed after WW II, was to discourage anyone from starting a
new war, since anyone fighting a war with one of these countries
would automatically have a war with the United States as well.
Dai Xu, a Chinese Air Force Colonel, is arguing for a short, decisive
war with one of China's neighbors--Vietnam, the Philippines, or
Japan--in order to establish sovereignty over the Pacific region
without risking war with the United States. This is the "kill a
chicken to scare the monkeys" philosophy. According to this theory,
America will NOT honor its mutual defense agreements with any of these
countries, because the U.S. will not want to risk having its cities
destroyed by Chinese ballistic missiles. He points to China's 1962
border clash with India, which China won decisively, leading to
decades of peace.
Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in
the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to
these empty provocations with something real.
This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the
three running dogs of the United States in Asia. We only need to
kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to
As one Chinese analyst put it, the Americans will "run like rabbits."
Another one said, "If there is a clash in the South China Sea, the
possibility that foreign countries would intervene is low, and any
conflict would not last long." Defense News (Washington) and Reuters
China's historic mistake
Anyone who understands even a little generational theory can quickly
understand that China is making a historic mistake that will be a
disaster for everyone.
China's 1962 border clash with India did not lead to a wider war because the countries were in a generational Awakening era; with
both countries being run by survivors of World War II and, respectively,
Mao's Communist Revolution civil war and the bloody Hindu/Muslim
war that followed Partition. Each of these wars were extremely
brutal, creating tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties
and refugees, and no one who survived either of those wars would
ever allow it to happen again.
Today, China, India, and America are in generational Crisis eras.
The survivors of World War II are all gone. Today's leaders have had
an easy life, where their worst crisis was a sex scandal. They have no
personal memory of the horrors of WW II, and the Gen-Xers think that
any older generation who even talks about it is completely full of
The Chinese, as well as many Americans, believe that President
Obama would not strike back if China launched one of these
"short, sharp wars" against one of its neighbors. Obama, according
to this view, would be like Neville Chamberlain after Hitler
This view overlooks the extreme nationalism of a generational Crisis era.
President Obama would not have any choice if Congress declared
war, which might happen within hours of any Chinese attack.
This view also overlooks the hard lesson that came out of the Neville
Chamberlain episode. Britain excused Germany's attack on
Czechoslovakia, but also warned that any further aggression would lead
to war. So Obama may have his Neville Chamberlain moment, but it
would only delay war.
China today is giddy with military power to the point of mass
hysteria and extremely overconfident. They're ready for war, and they're
anxious to go to war. They have a military strategy of attacking
America's weak points that they believe will lead them to a quick
victory, because America won't risk having its cities attacked.
Nothing can be further from the truth. Generational Dynamics predicts
that when China makes its move, and that day seems very close, then
the war won't end until every nuclear weapon on all sides has been
launched against some enemy's targets. By the end of the war, there could be
some 3 billion deaths, leaving 4 billion of so survivors to carry on
and try to rebuild the world.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, People's Liberation Army,
Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Dai Xu,
India, Neville Chamberlain
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