This morning's key headlines from
GenerationalDynamics.com
- Surprise rebel attack in Gao signals resurgence of Mali violence
- Iran and Hizbollah build militia networks in Syria
- Ethnic tensions grow in Kenya as March 4 elections approach
Surprise rebel attack in Gao signals resurgence of Mali violence
War-ravaged helicopter in Gao on Sunday (AFP)
Two weeks ago, France's president François Hollande declared "mission
accomplished," after French troops regained control of several cities
from the jihadists and rebels, with barely any casualties. Many
reports suggested that the rebels had simply fled to their bases to
regroup for a counterattack, and on Sunday a counterattack began in
Gao, the largest city in northern Mali. Black-robed Islamic
extremists armed with AK-47 automatic rifles invaded Gao in wooden
boats Sunday to launch a surprise attack that included two suicide
bombings. Gunfights are continuing into Sunday night. Many of the
rebels have combat experience from the war in Libya, and are
well-armed, thanks to the stores of weapons stolen from Libya. By the
end of March, France wants to hand over responsibility to the Malian
army, supported by troops donated by neighboring countries. Whether
that actually happens will depend on how successful the counterattacks
are. AP
Iran and Hizbollah build militia networks in Syria
An unnamed Obama administration intelligence official says that Iran
is backing as many as 50,000 militiamen in Syria, supplying them with
money and weapons. Syria is an important client of Iran, and the
Lebanon-based terror group Hizbollah is also an important client.
Iran and Hizbollah are setting up the militias to provide contingency
plans in case Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has to step down.
Right now, the militias are fighting alongside al-Assad's army, but if
he's forced to step down, then the plan is to create an enclave in
northwest Syria under control of Iran and Hizbollah. This would
provide an Iran-controlled supply route from the sea into Lebanon, so
that Hizbollah could continue to control Lebanon politics.
Washington Post
Ethnic tensions grow in Kenya as March 4 elections approach
After Kenya's last presidential election, in 2007, an outbreak of
ethnic violence killed than 1,200 people, and many thousands were
driven from their homes. (See
"Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war".) Now many Kenyans are dreading a new presidential
election on March 4, because there may be a new outbreak of ethnic
violence. There's already been one recent bloody ethnic massacre
(
"22-Dec-12 World View -- Ethnic revenge massacre in Kenya kills 41".) Even business is
affected, as Ugandan traders are shifting from Kenya's sea port to
Tanzania's more distant sea port.
There's a really bizarre overlay to the election: One of the
presidential candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been charged with crimes
against humanity, and is due to face trial in the International
Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague in April. With this trial
approaching, it suddenly seems that dozens of Kenyan witnesses who
were expected to testify at the trial have been disappearing and are
presumed dead. These disappearances are only adding to the ethnic
tensions that already exist throughout the country. Kenya's last
generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that climaxed in
1956, 57 years ago. It's fairly common for a new crisis war to begin
around the 58-year point following the climax of the preceding crisis
war, as that's the point where the survivors of the preceding crisis
war almost completely lose their influence. BBC and Independent (Uganda)
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