World View: Chechnya, Kyrgyzstan, and Analysis of the Boston Bombers
- Background profiles of Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev
- The radicalization of the Tsarnaev brothers
- Generational history of Kyrgyzstan
- The Beslan massacre and ABC news
Background profiles of Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev
Tamerlan Tsarnaev, left (dead), and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, right (captured) (AP)
The satirist Ambrose Bierce said a century ago, "War is God's way of
teaching Americans geography." Bierce might have said the same of
terrorism, because now Americans may finally have occasion to learn
something about Chechnya (in the North Caucasus) and Kyrgyzstan (in
Central Asia). Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics will
already be familiar with these regions, as I've written about them
many times, but for most Americans, they'll be completely unfamiliar.
Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev were ethnic Chechens (from Chechnya),
but they were born in Kyrgyzstan. What were ethnic Chechens doing
The two regions -- the North Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya, etc.) and
central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) -- are
linked by history. The two regions are historically connected because
Josef Stalin in 1944 deported North Caucasus ethnic groups to Central
Asia, believing that they were collaborating with the Nazis. When
Nikita Khrushchev allowed the deported people to return in the 1960s,
many remained behind. Thus, familial relationships between the two
regions remain to this day, and there has been cross-pollination of
Islamist terrorist fighters in both regions.
According to interviews with the Tsarnaev brothers' relatives,
including their father in Dagestan and their uncle in Baltimore, the
family new nothing about the brothers' plans and were both shocked
and saddened by the revelation that they were the perpetrators.
Baltimore Sun and Russia Today
The radicalization of the Tsarnaev brothers
If we look back at the London subway bombers of 7/7/2005, it turned
out that the suicide bombers were committing "altruistic suicide,"
because they believed that their parents' community would support and
honor their actions. The Boston bombers were not suicide bombers, but
I wouldn't be surprised if they were acting for what they
considered to be altruistic regions, expected to be honored by their
The London subway bombers were radicalized by internet contact with
al-Qaeda imams in the Pakistan tribal areas. As I recall, there were also some visits to Pakistan by one or two of the London bombers.
It appears that the Boston bombers were radicalized through social
networks. Tamerlan apparently spent around six months of last year
out of the U.S., during which time he visited his father in Dagestan and relatives in Chechnya. It's possible that Tamerlan
arranged for some training during that six month period, with or
without the knowledge of his father. NBC News and Jamestown
Generational history of Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan's last generational crisis war was the brutally repressed
1916 rebellion against the Russians, after which Kyrgyzstan became
part of the Soviet empire. World War II was a generational Awakening
era war for Kyrgyzstan. So, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, Kyrgyzstan today is in a "fifth turning," a distinctly
different era that occurs if the entire generational Crisis era
(fourth turning) passes with no crisis war. (See "Basics of Generational Dynamics")
Within Kyrgyzstan, there are many pending conflicts that may have
contributed to the radicalization of the Tsarnaev brothers.
- There are ancient ethnic hatreds between the Kyrgyz and the
Uzbeks. These ethnic hatreds are particularly pronounced in the
Fergana valley, which is at the intersection of Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. In June 2010, there was a massive
genocidal slaughter of Kyrgyz by Uzbeks on the Uzbekistan side of the
border. (See "15-Jun-10 News -- Uzbekistan closes border to refugees from Kyrgyzstan"). This
massacre has radicalized the entire Fergana valley region.
- One consequence of the 2010 massacre in Kyrgyzstan is that
discrimination against Uzbeks has increased dramatically, especially
in and near the Fergana valley. Uzbeks can't get jobs, and Uzbeks are
increasingly religiously oppressed, leading to a backlash of
radicalization among the Uzbeks.
- At the same time, tensions between Russians and Kyrgyz
are leading to violence in northern Kyrgyzstan. Russians (12.5
percent of the republic’s population) are the second most numerous
(after Uzbeks) ethnic minority in Kyrgyzstan.
- Kyrgyzstan has been cooperating with the U.S. with logistics for
the Afghan war, as have the Russians. This cooperation is becoming
increasingly significant as the U.S. has to find a way to remove ten
years of military equipment from land-locked Afghanistan. America's
drone strikes in Pakistan has unified Islamist militants throughout
central and southern Asia. (See "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan")
So what we're trying to do here is identify possible reasons why the
Tsarnaev brothers, growing up in Kyrgyzstan, were radicalized against
the U.S., and why they eventually decided that bombing the Boston
Marathon would be an altruistic act that would make their parents
proud of them. We've identified several possibilities:
- Opposition to the American drone strikes.
- Opposition to the Kyrgyz government's cooperation with the
- Opposition to the Russian government's cooperation with
- All of the above.
These appear to be the most likely motivations for the Boston Marathon
It's important to emphasize the obvious: None of this is supposed to
imply logical or rational reasoning on the part of Tsarnaev brothers.
But it's not crazy either. It's no different than the recent massacre of Muslims by Buddhists in Burma, the slaughter of Sufis and Shias by Sunni radicals in Pakistan, or the genocide of Jews by
ordinary Germans in the 1930s. (See
"The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust")
As I've described at length many times, these
things occur when inter-generational hatreds metastasize into hatred
along fault lines defined by religion, ethnicity, geography, language,
or skin color. As time goes on, we'll probably learn a lot more about
the specific motivations of the Tsarnaev brothers.
Whatever the motives of the Tsarnaev brothers, it's still necessary
for the investigation to determine exactly what methodology was used
to radicalize them. Did they figure out how to build a bomb on their
own, following directions from the internet, or through online
contacts? Or were they part of a larger cell that's still out there,
building more bombs? These questions will presumably be answered in
the coming days. Guardian (London)
The Beslan massacre and ABC news
This analysis of the Boston Marathon bombings gives me an
opportunity to review the extremely shameful news coverage
by ABC News in 2005.
One change that the Boston Marathon bombings may have brought
to America is a new appreciation for the horrific terrorist
attacks that the Russians have suffered at the hands of
Islamic terrorists from the North Caucasus.
In September 2004, Russia was the target of several major terrorist
attacks -- the bombing of two airplanes in flight, a subway bombing in
Moscow, and the massacre of 340 people, including 156 children, at a
school in Beslan, North Ossetia. (See "Russian President Putin asks revenge for Beslan")
All of these terrorist attacks occurred in a ten-day period and were comparable in size and horror to America's 9/11 attacks,
but the Russians received no sympathy from Americans. To the
contrary, some American leaders blamed the terrorist attacks
on the Russia government, saying that it had been mistreating
As if to prove the point, in July 2005, ABC News broadcast a
lengthy interview with Shamil Basayev, the mastermind of the Beslan
massacre and other terrorist acts. Basayev was permitted
to go on and on, justifying his bloody massacres politically.
It's as if ABC News had broadcast a lengthy interview with
Osama bin Laden, allowing him to go on and on criticizing the
U.S. and saying that we deserved the 9/11 attacks.
This was completely irresponsible "journalism" on the part of ABC
News, and the Russians were quite angry. (See "Russia infuriated over ABC 'Nightline' interview of Shamil Basayev".)
Returning now to paraphrase Ambrose Bierce's quote, "Terrorism
is God's way of teaching geography to Americans"; perhaps now
Americans will learn where the North Caucasus is, and ABC News will
learn to be less contemptuous of terrorism originating there.
The Atlantic Wire
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, Tamerlan Tsarnaev,
Chechnya, Kyrgyzstan, Ambrose Bierce, Dagestan, Uzbekistan,
altruistic suicide, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan,
Burma, Beslan massacre, Vladimir Putin, Shamil Basayev
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