World View: Syria and Hezbollah Gloat over Victory in Town of Qusair
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair
- Assad's Qusair victory renews debate about military intervention
- Thousands of American troops to Jordan for 'Eager Lion'
Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair
A Syrian army soldier sits inside a tank (AFP)
Syria's army scored a decisive victory on Wednesday in
the strategic town of Qusair which controls major transportation
routes in southwest Syria. According to the Syrian army:
"We will not hesitate to crush with an iron fist those
who attack us. ... Their fate is surrender or death. We will
continue our string of victories until we regain every inch of
Syrian land. [The capture was] a clear message to all those
participating in the aggression against Syria."
Analysts are saying that the capture of Qusair gives a tremendous
boost to Hezbollah, which will now be empowered to continue openly
fighting along side the Syrian regime's army. According to Lebanese
retired general Hisham Jaber:
"Hezbollah will fight anywhere in Syria that requires
guerrilla warfare tactics. It fought in Qusair because street
battles were required there, and I do not rule out the possibility
that it will join more street battles in Aleppo as well. The
Syrian army is incapable of fighting street battles."
A Hezbollah supporter, Lebanese retired Gen. Amin Hoteit, agreed:
"The equation is clear, Syria is being subjected to
Western aggression spearheaded by Israel. This means that
Hezbollah is actually fighting Israel and it is ready to do this
anywhere in Syria.
By joining the war, Hezbollah and Syria are affirming the strategy
of the resistance axis, which is ... together we confront the same
The Qusair represents a major victory for Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, for Hizbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and for
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Daily Star (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut)
Assad's Qusair victory renews debate about military intervention
The gloating by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's
terrorist group Hezbollah is raising nationalist fervor outside
of Syria, and is renewing the debate whether the West should
Both Susan Rice and Samantha Power, both of whom were given national
security promotions on Wednesday by the Obama Administration, have
been advocates in the past of military intervention in the Darfur
crisis civil war. As I've written in the past, military intervention
in Darfur would have been a disastrous error. (See "Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war" from 2007.)
So at the very least, these two women's appointments can be expected
to heat up the debate whether America should intervene militarily,
especially after the humiliation of seeing Russia's clients score an
critical victory against America's clients.
There is already a bitter division in the cabinet of Britain's prime
minister David Cameron. Cameron himself favors military intervention,
but at least five members of his capability oppose intervention, argue
that supplying weapons to the Free Syrian Army might only escalate the
conflict, killing many more people, without any realistic prospect of
providing a decisive victory for the rebels.
Analysts that I heard on Wednesday are split on the significance
of the regime's Qusair victory, with some downplaying the
significance of Qusair, and others saying that it's important,
but its loss is part of the "ebb and flow" of the war.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one must
recognize the possibility that al-Assad's Qusair victory
may lead to the complete collapse of the rebel side.
As I've written many, many times, Syria is in a generational
Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, with little desire
among the Syrian people for a war. The war has been propelled
entirely by the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, with
heavy weapons supplied by Russia and Iran, and guerilla fighters
supplied by Hezbollah. Without that outside support, al-Assad's
army would have collapsed long ago. But with that support,
it's the rebel side that vulnerable to collapse, and that
collapse may be close.
In that event, there are almost certainly going to be bitter
recriminations in the West, as this will be the third such loss that
might be blamed on the Obama administration:
The politics of this situation cannot easily be predicted, but
Americans do not like to lose wars, or even appear to have lost wars,
especially to dictators and terrorists. It's possible that the loss
of Syria will trigger a nationalistic backlash in America, and a
renewal of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Bloomberg and Independent (London)
- Sectarian violence has been growing steadily in Iraq since
December, 2011, when the American forces pulled out.
- Afghanistan's government is very unlikely to survive the
pullout of American forces.
- And now a possible victory by al-Assad in Syria.
Thousands of American troops to Jordan for 'Eager Lion'
There are various reports about thousands of American soldiers, as
well as F-16 warplanes, Patriot missile systems, being deployed to
Jordan this week. These deployments are being ignored by the
mainstream media, but they're not secret either, as they're part of a
long-scheduled military exercise called "Eager Lion 2013," scheduled
for later this month. The exercise will involve about 8,000
personnel. About 5,000 of those will be U.S., and about 3,000 will be
Jordanian. Other participating countries include Britain, Bahrain,
Canada, the Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon,
Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi
Arabia and Yemen.
The heavy involvement of American forces and equipment is raising
questions about whether something further is planned besides the
military exercises. Possibilities include: military intervention in
Syria, providing heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels, simply sending a
message to Russia, Iran and al-Assad, or providing military support
for Jordan, an American ally. Debka and UPI and Army.mil
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail