World View: Ukraine Chaos Raises Fears of Similar Violence in Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com:
  • Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday
  • Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia's nationalists
  • Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead

Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday

In Ukraine, 18 people were killed and hundreds injured, both police officers and protesters, in bloody clashes Tuesday with anti-government protesters in central Kiev, which they have been occupying for months. The protesters are demanding that pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich resign and allow a pro-European government take his place. The protesters took an even more bitter political turn on Tuesday as Russia's president Vladimir Putin provided a $2 billion loan to the President, to strengthen his political position.

The Kiev protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: the majority, Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians who occupy the western part of the country, and the minority, Russian-speaking ethnic Russians living in the east. In the "Orange Revolution" of 2003, the same president Yanukovich was forced to step down from office and was replaced in new elections by someone more agreeable to the ethnic Ukrainians. Yanukovich won reelection in 2010, and is now threatened by a new "Orange Revolution."

At the time of this writing on Tuesday evening ET, security police are charging protesters in central Kiev and meeting resistance. The clashes have been mostly confined to central Kiev so far, but there are growing fears that the fighting could spread and turn into a full-fledged civil war – which is not impossible, since Ukraine is in a generational Crisis era. AFP and LA Times

Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia's nationalists

There is still a great deal of concern about what Russia is going to do if things don't go its way in Ukraine. It's widely believed that any military action by Russia in Ukraine is "on hold" for the duration of the Sochi Olympics, and the fears are of what Russia might do once the Olympics games have ended.

Russian nationalists are expressing a great deal of anxiety about the events in Ukraine because they're afraid of similar anti-government protests in Russia. Aleksandr Samsonov, a well-known commentator, says that Russians should be under no illusions about the threat they face from the chaos into which Ukraine is rapidly sinking. He argues that what is going on threatens to return Europe to the situation of the 1930s, with the “rebirth” of Russophobic, fascist, and neo-Nazi ideology in Ukraine and its importation into North Caucasian nationalists and jihadists. He says that Joseph Stalin was prepared and able to repulse these threats, but it is not clear that Russia could do so currently – or that Moscow even recognizes that “the union of liberals, national separatists, and Islamists is a terrible threat,” one that could lead to the spilling of “rivers of blood” in Russia. Russian society needs to be mobilized against this threat, he says. Jamestown

Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead

In Thailand, four people were killed and 64 injured, both police officers and protesters, when police tried on Tuesday to clear anti-government protesters from central Bangkok, which they have been occupying for months. The protesters are demanding that prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra resign and allow the protesters to appoint an unelected "People's Council" that will rule in place of the elected government. The protesters took an even more bitter political turn on Tuesday as the country's anti-corruption commission filed charges against the Prime Minister.

The Bangkok protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: the "yellow shirt," market-dominant, light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority, and the "red shirt," dark-skinned, Thai-Thai who do most of the menial labor, and who continue to support Yingluck's Pheu Thai political party. Because of the Thai-Thai majority, the Pheu Thai have won the last five elections and can continue to do so. That's why the elite Thai-Chinese anti-government protesters want to replace the elected government with their own People's Council that they can control.

The situations in Thailand and Ukraine appear to be similar, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they're very different. In particular, unlike Ukraine, Thailand is in a generational Awakening era, and so a civil war in Thailand is literally impossible, while it's quite possible in Ukraine. What happens during an Awakening era is that there are periods of conflict, like you see today in Thailand, alternating with "peace agreements" that never last. Each period of conflict is worse than the previous one, until a full-fledged civil war begins several decades later. So Thailand is nowhere close to a civil war, but Ukraine might be. CNN

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