World View: Iran Asks U.S. to Intervene in Iraq, Offers Help
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
- U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
- Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
Here's a Saturday afternoon BBC interview with Professor Fawaz Gerges,
London School of Economics, that I transcribed, in which both the
interviewer and the interviewee expressed utter astonishment at the
INTERVIEWER: "Let's start with Iran. Now they say
they're willing to cooperate with the United States. I can't
believe those words are coming out of my mouth. What would be the
motivation behind that? They do simply fear ISIS, and what could
happen to Iraq? ..."
GERGES: "One of the most important developments to come out of
this particular crisis is the convergence of interests of the
United States and Iran. Both powers have vested interests in
stopping the ISIS surge. Iraq is the most pivotal ally of Iran.
And the United States fears that ISIS could really present a
threat not only to Iraq's integrity, but for regional stabilities.
I cannot believe it myself. The Iranian leadership OPENLY and
PUBLICLY calling on the United States to intervene in Iraq. A
radical departure from Iran's previous position.
Remember, Chris, for your viewers, Iran played a fundamental role
in nudging its allies to force the US out in 2011. Now, both
powers -- and I have no doubt in my mind that both powers are
talking secretly. Even now, both powers are not talking about it,
because they're planning contingency plans, because only the
United States and Iran could regroup and help the Iraqi forces to
consolidate that power."
What they were talking about is a speech by Iran's president Hassan
Rouhani saying that they would help the U.S. confront "terrorist
groups" in Iraq and Syria, referring principally to the Islamic
Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to Rouhani:
"If the Iraqi government asks us for help, we may
provide any assistance the Iraqi nation would like us to provide
in the fight against terrorism.
All countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism.
At the moment, it's the government of Iraq and the people of Iraq
that are fighting terrorism.
We have not seen the US do anything for now. Any time the
Americans start to take action against terrorist groups, we can
There are reports that Iran has already sent two battalions of
troops into Iraq, though they deny it.
President Obama is offering to help Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki
with the U.S. military, but with "no boots on the ground." The
aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been moved into the Persian Gulf
to provide Obama with options for possible airstrikes.
We now have a sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict growing in the
Mideast, and it looks like Iran and the U.S. are going to be allies.
Reports indicate the White House have been "surprised" by how quickly
all of this is happening. Obviously the White House doesn't read my
web site, because these are all things that I've been predicting for
years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses.
The Generational Dynamics web site is unique in the world. I'll
repeat the challenge that I've issued repeatedly since 2005: Find me a
politician, analyst, journalist or web site anywhere in the world with
anything close to the predictive success of Generational Dynamics and
this web site. I know that none exists, because I've looked.
So those of you on both the left and the right who have send me hate
mail from time to time should be aware that you're wrong and I'm right
-- or more precisely, Generational Dynamics is right. Anyone can have
an ideological opinion and rant about it, but Generational Dynamics is
not an ideological opinion, but a methodology that applies System
Dynamics and Chaos Theory to generational trends and flows, and always
seems to be right.
I'm completely schizophrenic about this. The part of me that's into
math and computers and analytics is thrilled that Generational
Dynamics seems to work consistently. But the part of me that's human
and deals every day with stories about starving children, schools
blown to smithereens, and "industrial strength" torture is extremely
saddened and depressed. I have little doubt that one day, undoubtedly
after my death, Generational Dynamics will be regarded as a major
advance in historical analysis. BBC and
U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), the
measure of how much wholesale prices are increasing, fell 0.2% in May,
indicating that wholesale prices fell, rather than increasing. That
is, instead of seeing inflation, we're seeing deflation. Once month's
data isn't necessarily dispositive, but the PPI has been close to zero
for months, and gone negative four times in the last year.
The prediction that I've been making for years is that the economy is
in a deflationary spiral. This directly contradicts almost all
mainstream economists and politicians who have been predicting
inflation or hyperinflation because of low interest rates and
quantitative easing. As in the case of Iran being our ally in a
Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict, Generational Dynamics has been
consistently right and mainstream economists, pundits, analysts and
politicians have been wrong. Bloomberg and Reuters
Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate against
pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, after a military plane was
shot down by a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, presumably
supplied by Russia, killing 49 people on board on Saturday morning.
The missile attack triggered a pro-Ukrainian protest in Kiev that
turned violent. Several hundred protesters hurled eggs and paint at
the Russian embassy in Kiev, and other protesters turned over cars
that carried diplomatic plates. Kiev police looked on and did nothing
to stop the violent protests.
The fighting continues to escalate in Ukraine, thanks to tanks, heavy
weapons and "volunteers" supplied by Russia. Ukraine and Russia are
in a generational Crisis era, so it's quite possible that the conflict
will spiral into a full-scale war. BBC
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