World View: Will Israel Win the Next War Between Arabs and Jews?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com:
- Israeli special forces appear to be fighting in Gaza
- Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?
- Biblical prophecy and the future of Israel
- History and population and the future of Israel
Israeli special forces appear to be fighting in Gaza
The Islamic Jihad and the Al-Quds Brigades in Gaza are claiming they
clashed on Sunday morning with Israeli special forces that entered
Gaza. The Israeli army has confirmed these reports. Israeli prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel is considering a
ground invasion of Gaza, but that no decision has yet been reached.
However, other reports indicate that Netanyahu is considering
proposing an exit strategy for the war. First, Israel will eradicate
a major portion of Hamas's military resources in Gaza, but leave it in
Second, Israel will back down from a ground invasion of Gaza in return
for international agreement that Israeli forces will be assigned the
responsibility for the security of the Jordan Valley and the West
Bank, to protect them from an invasion of the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS) from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. Al Aribiya and Jerusalem Post and Debka
Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?
I received a number of comments questioning my statements in "9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants" four days ago.
I wrote that many Arabs want a war with Israel because they
believe that they could win it, simply based on population.
Israel has 7.8 million people, while there are 123.2 million Arabs
in adjoining countries, and population is destiny.
There were two categories of objections: Biblical prophecy, and
history. I'll address both of them below.
But in reading the Mideast press, I get the strong impression that the
Israeli people are way overconfident, and are certain they can't lose.
This is in contrast to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who
gives me the feeling that he's in a state of panic. From the
Palestinian leaders, I get the impression of gritty determination that
this time they're going to win.
However, in writing this article, I'm not taking an ideological stand.
I'm following the Generational Dynamics methodology. And in that
methodology a war is an act of nature, like an earthquake or a
hurricane. It's neither good nor bad. Like an earthquake, it
accomplishes nothing but destruction. As I first wrote my analysis of President Bush's Mideast Roadmap to Peace, in May 2003, a war between Arabs and Jews is coming
with absolute certainty, just as earthquakes and hurricanes come with
So this article continues the previous analysis by addressing the
question of whether Israel is going to win the next major war between
Jews and Arabs. The analysis indicates that Israel is probably going
to lose. But wars end; in the aftermath, there may yet be a new
Biblical prophecy and the future of Israel
People who believe in Biblical prophecy often look to the Bible to try
to discern what will happen to Israel. One person wrote the following
The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory
is it does not account for religion. I am 100% backer of
Generational Dynamics except when it comes to Israel who is
Yahweh's chosen people, even though they don't act like it. He
would not let the region be trampled on by Esau's and Ishmael's
descendants. I don't want to enter in a debate of who believes in
what. I'm just saying that comparing Israel's 7.8 million versus
123.2 million Arabs and giving the victory to the Arabs is a bit
premature. Just sit back and watch what happens.
I would respond by saying that no one could know what Yahweh's plan
is. Perhaps his plan is to let Israel be trampled on by Esau's and
Ishmael's descendants, so that a new Israel can rise from the ashes.
That would be completely in the spirit of many historical Biblical
In fact, if you think about it, Israel was created by the United
Nations out of the ashes of World War II. It would certainly be
consistent with millennia of Jewish history if Israel were completely
destroyed by the coming war, and then rose again afterwards.
Here's a comment that a web site reader sent to me in February 2011,
as the Arab world was in tumult over the "Arab Awakening" in Egypt,
Libya, Tunisia, and other countries:
I feel you are off in a few points. The biggest
problem is you do not address the Bible's predictions in your
assessments of a world conflict. As the Bible sees it, we shall
have a limited war in the Middle East (Psalm 83/Isaiah 17/Jeremiah
49) that will involve Israel vs. Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and
Saudi Arabia. This war will end with Israel 'nuking' Damascus off
the map and the world CRYING for a peace plan. With the inner ring
of Arab nations conquered by Israel the Middle East problems will
be seen as over, a 'new' global leader will provide a seven year
treaty that makes more war impossible. Though when everyone says
'peace and safety', the end comes quickly. In 2-3 months I think,
Russia and Iran and the outer ring of Arab nations will attack
Israel in revenge (with Russia adding their might, but planning to
double-cross the Arabs once things are done). ... As Ezekiel
38-39 reads God will supernaturally save Israel, and leave but
1/6th of its attackers alive.
First, I try to tell people who believe in Bible prophecy to interpret
today's events to be very cautious, because populations have moved.
Just to take one example, the Turks came from central Asia, and didn't
move into Anatolia (today's Turkey) until about 1000 years ago. So
someone using Bible prophecy to interpret events today about Turkey
would have to explain away the fact that there's a whole new race of
people living in Turkey, different from the people who lived there at
the time of the prophecy.
However, I particularly want to focus on the prophecy about Damascus,
which several people have written to me about over the years, in
"1 The oracle concerning Damascus. "Behold, Damascus
is about to be removed from being a city And will become a fallen
ruin. 2 "The cities of Aroer are forsaken; They will be for flocks
to lie down in, And there will be no one to frighten them. 3 "The
fortified city will disappear from Ephraim, And sovereignty from
Damascus And the remnant of Aram; They will be like the glory of
the sons of Israel," Declares the LORD of hosts."
There are many people who interpret these verses as indicating that
someone is going to drop a nuclear weapon on Damascus. The attacker
would be Israel or Iran or Russia, according to different
What's fascinating about this prophecy is that it seems that almost
everyone in the Mideast seems to know about it. So if anybody
actually DOES drop a bomb on Damascus at some time in the future, it
will truly be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since the attacker will
certainly justify this action by saying it's a Bible prophecy. Thus, it
would be possible to argue that the CAUSE of the nuclear attack
on Damascus would have been the Bible prophecy.
So the net result of all this is that it's very difficult to justify
applying any Biblical prophecy to today's events, and every easy to
get into trouble because of it. Pulpit Biblical Commentary
History and population and the future of Israel
Several people sent me messages something like the following: "In fact Israel was already outnumbered like that in
1948 and 1967 and 1973. It always had a more efficient army with
American-made up-to-date weapons."
As I mentioned earlier, this statement is based on an invalid
assumption that just because Israel, with 7.8 million people, won wars
in the past against Arabs, with over 100 million people, that they'll
do it again. In fact, my reading is that the Israeli people (as
opposed to the politicians) are so overconfident, they may lose rather
quickly and decisively.
However, I'd like to focus on another aspect of the population issue,
that I've written about in the past. Here, from the CIA World Fact Book, are the number of births per 1000 population
in various Sunni Muslim countries:
Gaza Strip 32.20
West Bank 23.41
And here are the number of births per 1000 population for some other
Korea, South 8.26
United Kingdom 12.22
United States 13.42
Since World War II, the birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries has been
roughly twice as high as in other countries.
I've been aware of this since the 1990s, since it was mentioned in
Samuel P. Huntington's book The Clash of Civilizations. I've asked
many Muslims why this has been happening, and I've never gotten an
explanation. So I can only make an educated guess.
Around 1300, a Muslim Turkish tribe led by its chieftain, Osman,
started making conquests, eventually becoming the Ottoman Empire. It
had a series of almost unbroken conquests, including the destruction
of the Byzantine Empire in 1453. It continued with one success after
another until 1683, when the Habsburgs (Germans) defeated the
Ottomans, almost destroying their entire army, in the War with the
Holy League (1683-99). This was a calamitous defeat, and signaled a
reversal of the Ottoman Empire's fortunes. There were further
defeats, culminating in the complete destruction of the Ottoman
Empire, and the declaration of the secular Turkish Republic in 1922.
This was also the end of the worldwide Islamic Caliphate in Istanbul.
So after roughly 300 years of almost unbroken victories, the Muslim
world suffered roughly 300 years of almost unbroken defeats. This led
to several decades of chaos, and eventually to "the Nakba" or "the
catastrophe" -- the partitioning of Palestine in 1948, and the
creation of Israel.
My speculation is that a sense grew across the Muslim world that these
repeated Muslim defeats could be turned to victories in only one way:
by outbreeding the Jews and Christians. I don't know if anyone issued
a fatwa or if some Muslim politician made an appeal. But in the six
decades since World War II, when Western politicians were encouraging
couples to have no more than two children, to prevent a population
explosion, the Muslim world was encouraging couples to have as many
children as possible, in order to defeat the West.
That's my speculation for why the birth rate in the Sunni Muslim
countries has been twice the birth rate in Western countries. If some
Islamic scholar or historian has a better explanation, I would like to
hear it, and I would welcome receiving a communication on the subject.
Returning now to the original topic, since the time of the Nakba,
there has been a gritty determination in the Arab world to defeat
Israel, and they may very well succeed. But the destruction of the
Ottoman Empire didn't mean the end of the Muslims, and the destruction
of Israel will not mean the end of the Jews. It's well to remember
that the Jews have survived for millennia, despite many attempts to
exterminate them, and there's little doubt that the Jews will survive
again, whether Israel does or not.
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