World View: Hamas Cracks Down on Political Enemies in Gaza
- Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
- Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
- The 'Sadat Gambit' in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
- Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country
Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
Just before midnight Monday, when the latest Hamas-Israel Gaza
truce was due to expire, the two sides agreed to extend the
truce another 24 hours to continue negotiating a draft deal
being discussed in Cairo.
According to Debka, the provisions of the draft deal include
- Extend Palestinian fishing rights.
- Discuss, in a month, building a deep sea port and airport
- Israel will waive demilitarization of Gaza.
- Israel will negotiate release of convicted Palestinian
prisoners from jail.
However, any such deal will have to be approved by Israel's cabinet,
which is very far from certain. Daily Mail (London) and Debka
Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
Reports have indicated that a major objective of both Egypt and Israel
in a potential peace settlement of the Gaza war is that Mahmoud
Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA or Fatah) would play a major role,
either replacing Hamas as the governing authority in Gaza, or at
least serving as guards at an open Rafah border crossing connecting
Gaza to Egypt. However, these proposals are an existential threat to
Hamas as a political and military organization, so there's never been
any serious chance that they would accept either of them.
The Palestinian factions Hamas and PA/Fatah have been bitter enemies
since Hamas defeated Fatah in a 2008 war that wrested complete control
of Gaza from Fatah. Theoretically, Fatah and Hamas have reconciled
and are part of a "unity government," but unity has always been a
fantasy, and the Gaza war has split them further.
Hamas has been cracking down on political opponents in Gaza for some
time, especially Fatah. But now on Monday, Hamas has placed dozens of
Fatah activists under house arrest and has shot several in the legs
for not staying indoors. Hamas leaders claim that they had nothing to
do with the actions and suggested that some Hamas activists had been
acting on their own. This illustrates a major problem with the peace
negotiations in Cairo -- Hamas does not have control of Gaza, or even
its own activists, so it's not capable of making valid commitments.
Separately, reports indicate Israel's security services uncovered a
Hamas plot to violently overthrow the Palestinian Authority in the
West Bank, coupled with large-scale terrorist attacks on Israel. The
report claims that the plot was orchestrated from Istanbul, with the
knowledge of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AP and Debka
The 'Sadat Gambit' in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
According to a Sunday analysis by Kforce Government Solutions,
Israel's prime minister is determined to avoid a repeat of a trap set
by Egypt's president Anwar Sadat in the 1973 Yom Kippur war with
Egyptian authorities indicated that today's
negotiations would represent Egypt's final effort to mediate a
lasting ceasefire. All parties appear interested in observing the
ceasefire a day at a time, even in the absence of an omnibus
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel will not
compromise on the security requirement that the Gaza Strip must be
demilitarized. He also said that Hamas will not be permitted to
obtain a political victory from its military defeat. If Hamas
resumes rocket attacks upon the expiration of the ceasefire,
Netanyahu promised massive retaliation.
What Netanyahu refers to is the Sadat Gambit that motivated the
Yom Kippur War of 1973. Egyptian President Sadat knew that
Egyptian forces could not defeat Israel in a war. The military
objective was to gain enough territory to provide Egypt with
leverage in the peace talks. In other words, lose the war to win
the peace. It worked. Egypt did not with the war, but eventually
became the second largest recipient of US military aid, second
only to Israel.
The Palestinians, according to Netanyahu, tried a scaled back
version of the Sadat Gambit, but failed because they were unable
to cause significant casualties in Israel. The Gambit works when
the side using it achieves sufficient, real battlefield success to
afford it leverage in peace talks. The Palestinians fell short of
attaining leverage because their rockets performed so poorly and
so many Palestinians died.
The Israelis understand that ploy and will deny it to Hamas. The
key point is that Hamas is continuing to fold. It is now willing
to settle for a partial lifting of the Israeli blockade and to
defer discussion of a seaport in Gaza, as long as Israel allows
funds to be transferred by the Palestinian Authority to Hamas to
enable it to pay the bills.
Another way in which Hamas has sustained a setback is that the
Palestinian Authority appears to be asserting more authority over
the negotiations, mostly because of Hamas legendary inability to
govern and because the Authority has money and Hamas is broke.
One or other of the Palestinian groups may be expected to launch
rockets by Tuesday, as a show of defiance. Israel will respond
asymmetrically. The fighting is not finished.
KGS NightWatch and Boca Raton News - Oct 9, 1973
Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country
In a new blow to the economy of West Africa, Kenya said on Monday it
will block passengers from Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea from
entering Kenya for fear that they might be carrying the Ebola virus.
This is further isolating the region, threatening shortages of food
and other supplies. The World Bank and the African Development Bank
are planning to provide as much as $260 million in emergency aid.
As we reported yesterday, fears
have increased that the spread of Ebola is out of control after
looters attacked an Ebola clinic in the densely crowded West Point
district of Monrovia, the capital city. The looters stole
blood-stained sheets and mattresses, putting into danger anyone who
comes into contact with those items. 17 Ebola patients left the
clinic after the attack.
Reports yesterday indicated that authorities had found the 17 escaped
Ebola patients and moved them to a central Monrovia hospital.
However, later reports indicate that the escaped patients have not
been found. Also, the Monrovia police have been unable to enter the
clinic for fear of becoming infected. Once they've received
shipments of protective equipment and suits, they'll be able to deploy
to West Point. Zegabi (Kenya) and Bloomberg and Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Hussam Kawasme,
Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Anwar Sadat, Sadat Gambit,
Kenya, Ebola, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea,
World Bank, African Development Bank, Monrovia, West Point
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