Editors Note: From The Mail on Sunday.
UKIP are set to win their first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the vote following the biggest swing in modern political history.
Turncoat MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate David Cameron at the Clacton by-election sparked by his defection, a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday has revealed.
The figures — the first test of public opinion since the politician rocked Westminster by defecting to Nigel Farage’s party — predict a record 48 point swing towards Ukip.
And they put the anti-Brussels party a staggering 44 percentage points ahead of Mr Carswell’s former party in the Essex constituency.
If the results are repeated in the by-election, expected in October, the swing would exceed the current record 44 points achieved by Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes when he thrashed Labour’s Peter Tatchell, the gay rights campaigner, in a by-election in Bermondsey, South London, in 1983.
The biggest anti-Tory swing to date is the 35 points achieved by the Lib Dems in the Christchurch by-election in 1993.
The 48 point Ukip swing in Clacton is partly the result of the party not having stood in the 2010 Election, so their support has gone from nought to 64 per cent in one leap.
The poll blow came as senior Tory MP Sir Nicholas Soames fiercely criticized Mr Carswell.
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