Broncos Improved Total QB Rating from 29.9 to 84.1 So They Could Win Today

To win and keep their jobs, GMs and NFL Coaches need two things; a Defense that can stop opponents and a Quarterback with a high Total QBR. As great a person and Christian witness as Tim Tebow is, the fact is almost every quarterback with a TQBR near his 29.9 are out of the NFL as he may be, and every quarterback to average a 75 or higher TQBR is still playing in the playoffs.

NFL coaches today are scientists who figure out where they can find a match-up in which a wide receiver is fast enough to beat the corner back on a certain pattern, or an offensive lineman can create a crease for a running back against a certain line-up. We took the Total QBR rankings from ESPN for the last three years, and you simply get enough motivation and leadership to have a chance to get to the NFL playoffs and win once there on a regular basis.

Yes, Tebow pulled it off with an amazing effort, some breaks, and playing in a terrible division last year and pulled off a magical upset of the Steelers, but the facts are it is unlikely that would have ever repeated. On the table below of all qualifying quarterbacks TQBR’s the last three years:

1. All four quarterbacks with a TQBR of 75 or higher are starting in the playoffs this weekend (Kaepernick, Manning, Rodgers and Brady). (100%)

2. Four of the six quarterbacks with a 65 or higher started in the playoffs this year (RG3, Ryan, Wilson and Luck). (67%)

3. Only two of the 10 quarterbacks between 50 (average) and 65 started in the playoffs this year (Schaub and Flacco). (20%)

4. Only two of the 34 quarterbacks who were below average took their team to the playoffs (Ponder was injured and didn’t actually play, and Dalton overthrew an open receiver in the endzone late as Cincinnati lost by six. (12%)

5. Of more concern to Tebow (29.9 QBR) is that 9 of the 13 quarterbacks who had a QBR below 40 played enough the following season to qualify.

Two of the four to survive are the players Tebow hoped to replace. Blaine Gabbert had only a 20.6 last year, but did improve to a 40.9 this year which apparently closes the door for the home team. Mark Sanchez has seen his rating drop from 48 to 33.6 to 23.4 this year, the last being the lowest total of any quarterback except Jimmy Clausen (replaced by Cam Newton after an 11.8 for Carolina), Curtis Painter (replaced by Luck after 22.5 in 2011) and Gabbert.

So the fact is that it is Manning who gives the Broncos a chance to end Ray Lewis career, and Manning who gives the Broncos a chance to rally if the Ravens take the lead.

3-year Rnk PLAYER Team 2010 2011 2012 3-YEAR Playoff W1?
1 Colin Kaepernick SF     76.8 76.8 Bye
2 Peyton Manning DEN 68.6   84.1 76.4 Bye
3 Aaron Rodgers GB 69.2 86.2 72.5 76.0 Won
4 Tom Brady NE 76.8 72.7 77.1 75.5 Bye
5 Drew Brees NO 65.3 84 67.9 72.4  
6 Robert Griffin III WSH     71.4 71.4 Lost
7 Matt Ryan ATL 69.4 69.1 74.5 71.0 Bye
8 Russell Wilson SEA     69.6 69.6 Won
9 Tony Romo DAL   71.4 62.7 67.1  
10 Andrew Luck IND     65 65.0 Lost
11 Eli Manning NYG 65.9 59.4 67.4 64.2  
12 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 64.1 63.6 62.8 63.5  
13 Matt Schaub HOU 57.8 67.5 62.6 62.6 Won
14 Matthew Stafford DET   65.5 58.9 62.2  
15 David Garrard JAC 61     61.0  
16 Michael Vick PHI 68 64.4 46 59.5  
17 Kerry Collins TEN 58.6     58.6  
18 Matt Moore MIA   56.6   56.6  
19 Philip Rivers SD 63.7 62.7 40.6 55.7  
20 Joe Flacco BAL 60.4 59.7 46.8 55.6 Won
21 Cam Newton CAR   55 54.2 54.6  
22 Josh Freeman TB 64.6 45.3 53.1 54.3  
23 Jay Cutler CHI 48.6 59.8 51.9 53.4  
24 Ryan Tannehill MIA     52.3 52.3  
25 Alex Smith SF 40.1 45.8 70.1 52.0  
26 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 40.4 62.8 48.5 50.6  
27 Carson Palmer OAK 43.5 62.6 44.7 50.3  
28 Kyle Orton DEN/KC 47.9 49.8   48.9  
29 Andy Dalton CIN   45.8 50.7 48.3 Lost
30 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 48.4 50.5 45.8 48.2  
31 Jake Locker TEN     48.1 48.1  
32 Jason Campbell OAK 47.7     47.7  
33 Matt Cassel KC 52.2 51.2 36.5 46.6  
34 Jon Kitna DAL 46     46.0  
35 Nick Foles PHI     45.3 45.3  
36 Rex Grossman WSH   43.9   43.9  
37 Christian Ponder MIN   33.7 53.8 43.8 Lost
38 Colt McCoy CLE 45 40.1   42.6  
39 Shaun Hill DET 41.6     41.6  
40 Sam Bradford STL 41.5 28.6 51.6 40.6  
41 Donovan McNabb WSH 38.7     38.7  
42 Tarvaris Jackson SEA   37.7   37.7  
43 Chad Henne JAC 42.6   29.9 36.3  
44 Derek Anderson ARI 35.3     35.3  
45 John Skelton ARI   35.1   35.1  
46 Mark Sanchez NYJ 48 33.6 23.4 35.0  
47 Kevin Kolb ARI   34.4   34.4  
48 Blaine Gabbert JAC   20.6 40.9 30.8  
49 Tim Tebow DEN/NYJ   29.9   29.9  
50 Brady Quinn KC     27.4 27.4  
51 Brandon Weeden CLE     26.6 26.6  
52 Brett Favre MIN 25.4     25.4  
53 Curtis Painter IND   22.5   22.5  
54 Jimmy Clausen CAR 11.8     11.8

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