All-Star Break: We Nailed the NBA Draft, so ...

Breitbart Sports will focus on major sports drafts, where the business of sports starts. Cole Muzio presents his NFL mock draft today. Rookie ratings at the NBA All-Star break indicate Rob Lowe and I are coming off a very successful NBA draft in which we were right in our advice to NBA clubs on 32 picks, while we missed on only 13 – guidance worth millions of dollars to the bottom line as teams are obligated to pay at least $1.7 million for the 30th pick in the draft, and $8.8 million for the first pick. Here is how every pick has done, and if our guidance was right or wrong:

Draft Our grade Actual PLAYER Min. 2-year Did we get it Right or Wrong?
1 A 2 Anthony Davis $8,766,700 Right - he is Number 2 only because of injuries.
2 D 9 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $7,843,800 Right - we were sure Jordan had again gotten overexcited about an NCAA champ.
3 A 14 Bradley Beal $7,043,800 Wrong - he has not quite measured up.
4 C- 13 Dion Waiters $6,350,700 Right - we said 4 was simply too high, and it has been.
5 A 24 Thomas Robinson $5,750,900 Wrong - we thought he measured up to his 5th pick status, and he has not been there.
6 D 6 Damian Lillard $5,223,300 Wrong - thought he was too high, and he has measured up.
7 D 18 Harrison Barnes $4,768,300 Right - We said seventh was way too high, and it has been.
8 C- 25 Terrence Ross $4,368,300 Right - We said 8th was too high, and it has been.
9 C 1 Andre Drummond $4,015,600 Wrong - NBA officials assured me his attributes trumped his stats - they were right.
10 C- 33 Austin Rivers $3,814,500 Right - we said 10th was way too high, and he has played like a 2nd rounder.
11 A 15 Meyers Leonard $3,623,900 Jury still out - while his 15th rank this year is slightly behind being the 11th pick, a bad ankle injury slowed him and we believe he will move into the top 10 players..
12 C   Jeremy Lamb $3,442,800 Right - his college stats did not measure up to a 12th pick, and he is only playing four minutes.
13 C-   Kendall Marshall $3,270,600 Right - we said "overrated" all year and 2.1 points and 1.5 assists a game is not much.
14 A 3 John Henson $3,107,200 Right - we said an absolute steal at 14th pick, and he has been 3rd best player.
15 C 16 Moe Harkless $2,951,500 Right - we said 15th was almost exactly right, and it has been.
16 C-   Royce White $2,804,100 Right - way to high as a 16th pick and now in D-League.
17 A 22 Tyler Zeller $2,663,800 Wrong - we thought he would be even better than 17th pick.
18 A   Terrence Jones $2,530,700 Wrong - only three points and two rebounds a game not much for an 18th pick.
19 C- 5 Andrew Nicholson $2,416,800 Wrong - he is actually better than the 19th round pick used.
20 NA   Evan Fournier $2,320,100 NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
21 A 11 Jared Sullinger $2,227,200 Right - we said a steal at 21st, and he has been at 11th best though the injury loomed again.
22 C   Fab Melo $2,138,300 Right - did not see him making impact in his first year.
23 D 19 John Jenkins $2,052,800 Wrong - he has been solid for 23rd pick.
24 C-   Jared Cunningham $1,970,600 Right - thought he was too high, and just 2 ppg in 8 games not enough for a first rounder.
25 D   Tony Wroten $1,891,800 Right - 3 points and 2 assists a game not enough for a first rounder.
26 B   Miles Plumlee $1,829,000 Wrong - we thought Mason's brother was ready to produce more than 1 point/1 rebound.
27 A   Arnett Moultrie $1,776,300 Jury out - hardly played until last five games, during which he has averaged 6 pts/5 reb.
28 C   Perry Jones $1,765,400 Wrong - we thought this was about where he should be picked - but he has been very poor.
29 C   Marquis Teague $1,752,600 Right - another overrated NCAA champ averaging 2 points and 1 assist a game.
30 C 28 Festus Ezeli $1,739,900 Right - we thought that was about right and it was almost exact.
31 C+ 26 Jeffery Taylor   Right - we said he should be a little better than 31st pick, and he has been.
32 NA   Tomas Santoransky   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
33 C 7 Bernard James   Wrong - he has played like a lottery pick.
34 A 20 Jae Crowder   Right - we said he was a steal at 34th, and he has been the 20th best.
35 A 27 Draymond Green   Right - we said he was better than a 35th pick, and he has been.
36 D   Orlando Johnson   Jury out - has played ok in limited action.
37 C   Quincy Acy   Jury out - just 8 minutes a game, but has played decently during that time.
38 B   Quincy Miller   Wrong - only played two games all year.
39 D   Khris Middleton   Right - there were much better prospects, and he has hardly played.
40 A 30 Will Barton   Right - we thought he was a 2nd round pick that oculd make it, and he has.
41 D   Tyshawn Taylor   Right - With more turnovers than assists there were better options.
42 C+   Doron Lamb   Jury out - has hardly played.
43 B   Mike Scott   Right - for this late, Scott has been good when put in (2 pts/3 reb in just 8 minutes per game)
44 B   Kim English   Right - just like Scott, 2 points and a rebound in 8 minutes a game is solid for this late.
45 F   Justin Hamilton   Right - we said a terrible pick, and he didn't see the time of day.
46 F 31 Darius Miller   Right - he has played, but in the bottom few of all rookies.
47 F   Kevin Murphy   Right - we didn't like this pick, and he has hit less than a third of his shots in 1 min/game.
48 NA   Kostas Papanikolaou   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
49 A   Kyle O'Quinn   Right -more minutes would rank him 3rd in PER behind only Drummond/Davis - 54% FG%.
50 NA   Izzet Turkyilmaz   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
51 D   Kris Joseph   Jury out - only 7 minutes a game, but would rank 20th if more minutes.
52 NA   Ognjen Kuzmic   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
53 NA   Furkan Aldemir   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
54 NA   Tornike Shengelia   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
55 C   Darius Johnson-Odom   Right - we hated to say it, but did not have him as a draft pick and he was cut.
56 NA   Tomislav Zubcic   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
57 NA   Ilkan Karaman   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
58 C   Robbie Hummel   Right - we said we could not see him making it, and he has not.
59 A   Marcus Denmon   NA - we do not rate foreign prospects
60 D   Robert Sacre   Wrong - his PER is very low, but he did make the team - which we doubted.

The business of sports starts with t he pro drafts. NBA team can spend anywhere between $200,000 and $500,000 per win based on picking the right employees (players) and paying the right salaries within the cap.

Last year we revealed to select NBA team officials the results of a more advanced “Value Add NBA Indicators” that indicated how many wins – which translate into money – each potential draftee should bring them. On draft night, we released this information publicly real-time after each draft (see 1st round and 2nd round real-time).

The table below notes where they were picked, and where they rank among the 33 rookies with enough minutes to qualify based on ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating. We then note whether we were right or wrong on each player – was he worth more than the salary they had to guarantee that spot (and “A” or “B”) so that we thought they had a steal, or did they make the pick too high (a “C” or lower), meaning they could have gotten much better value for their investment.

The jury is still out on a few, such as the Trail Blazers Meyers Leonard (pictured), who we believe was a great choice with the 11th pick. He injured his ankle badly, and is still the 15th best player according to PER, so we expect he will finish in the top 10, but cannot claim him as a "Right" yet.

The owners were once again good on picks 1 through 9, but starting with the 10th pick, in almost every case the player we recommended has done better than the player actually selected. In fact, we nailed 31 picks, to only 13 misses.

 

 


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