Stat Projection Shows Burke's High Potential

Trey Burke leads the list below of the top Sr. Value Adds using the Advanced formula reviewed by select NBA teams last year. Only 10 players have recorded a better Sr. Value Add and five have become superstars, four have been strong NBA players, and only one has been a disappointing reserve. Despite being undersized, Burke's odds look very strong for a great NBA career.

Value Add goes back to 2005-06 season, and Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, James Harden and Stephen Curry had higher Sr. Value Adds and went on to be NBA Superstars. Sheldon Williams (10.4 pts./10.1 reb), Michael Beasley (14.1/5.2) and Anthony Davis (13.5/8.2) have strong numbers. Jared Sullinger played limited minutes due to injury (6.0/5.9), leaving only the Spurs DeJuan Blair (7.8/5.8) as a mediocre player. The advanced formula for Sr. Value Add adjusts the Offensive and Defensive Value Add figures found at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on the following table: 

Adjustment for Off Def Improvement Cap
current freshman 4.06 1.56 5.00
current sophomore 1.65 1.35 4.00
current junior 1.13 1.16 3.00
current senior 1.00 1.00 0.00

When applied to this season's players, the following are the Sr. Value Add leaders, which are doubled when weighting against other factors to determine the players most likely to succeed in the NBA. CJ McCollom's 2012 season was used since he broke his foot early in 2013, and estimates were made for European players. Unlike in an earlier post outlining the more basic formula, these ratings do not give Nerlens Noel credit for his games missed than injury - otherwise he would have been one of the top few Sr. Value Adds of all time.

Rnk Fname Lname Team VA Class Sr. VA Draft
1 Trey Burke Michigan 11.93 So 14.93 30
2 Otto Porter Georgetown 10.44 So 13.44 27
3 Ben McLemore Kansas 7.39 Fr 13.39 27
4 Nerlens Noel Kentucky 6.15 Fr 12.15 24
5 Cody Zeller Indiana 9.13 So 12.13 24
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Georgia 9.09 So 12.09 24
7 Anthony Bennett Nevada Las Vegas 5.65 Fr 11.65 23
8 Victor Oladipo Indiana 9.68 Jr 10.48 21
9 Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse 7.83 So 10.28 21
10 Steven Adams Pittsburgh 4.25 Fr 10.25 21
11 Erick Green Virginia Tech 10.00 Sr 10.00 20
12 Shane Larkin Miami FL 6.87 So 9.87 20
13 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA 3.44 Fr 9.44 19
14 Mason Plumlee Duke 8.84 Sr 8.84 18
15 Kelly Olynyk Gonzaga 7.73 Jr 8.79 18
16 Mike Muscala Bucknell 8.76 Sr 8.76 18
17 Nate Wolters South Dakota St. 8.63 Sr 8.63 17
  Giannis Adetokunbo Filathlitikos, Intl       17
18 Reggie Bullock North Carolina 7.12 Jr 8.08 16
  Sergey Karasev Triumph Moscow, Intl       16
19 Jeff Withey Kansas 7.68 Sr 7.68 15
20 Deshaun Thomas Ohio St. 6.79 Jr 7.68 15
21 Gorgui Dieng Louisville 6.63 Jr 7.61 15
22 Andre Roberson Colorado 6.53 Jr 7.51 15
  Dennis Schroeder Braunschweig, Intl       15
  Rudy Gobert Cholet, Intl       15
23 Allen Crabbe California 6.4 Jr 7.27 15
24 Pierre Jackson Baylor 7.13 Sr 7.13 14
25 Jamaal Franklin San Diego St. 6.12 Jr 7.02 14
  Lucas Nogueira Estudiantes, Intl       14
26 Erik Murphy Florida 6.98 Sr 6.98 14
27 Grant Jerrett Arizona 1.95 Fr 6.92 14
28 Richard Howell North Carolina St. 6.9 Sr 6.9 14
29 Ray McCallum Detroit 7.6 Jr 6.88 14
30 Peyton Siva Louisville 6.57 Sr 6.57 13
31 Seth Curry Duke 6.55 Sr 6.55 13
  Ricky Ledo Providence, Fr       13
32 James Ennis Long Beach St. 6.45 Sr 6.45 13
33 Alex Len Maryland 3.69 So 5.72 11
34 Colton Iverson Colorado St. 5.56 Sr 5.56 11
35 Jackie Carmichael Illinois St. 5.51 Sr 5.51 11
  Glen Rice Rio Grande Valley, Sr       11
36 James Southerland Syracuse 5.43 Sr 5.43 11
37 Isaiah Canaan Murray St. 5.3 Sr 5.3 11
38 Trevor Mbakwe Minnesota 5.12 Sr 5.12 10
39 Brandon Paul Illinois 5.1 Sr 5.1 10
40 Ryan Kelly Duke 4.98 Sr 4.98 10
41 Carrick Felix Arizona St. 4.86 Sr 4.86 10
42 Solomon Hill Arizona 4.67 Sr 4.67 9
43 Kenny Kadji Miami FL 4.67 Sr 4.67 9
44 Brandon Davies Brigham Young 4.53 Sr 4.53 9
  Alex Abrines Barcelona, Intl       9
  Marko Todorovic Barcelona, Intl       9
  Nemanja Nedovic Lietuvos Rytas, Intl       9
45 Archie Goodwin Kentucky 1.34 Fr 4.44 9
46 Lorenzo Brown North Carolina St. 5.34 Jr 4.38 9
47 Tim Hardaway Michigan 4.09 Jr 4.07 8
48 Dewayne Dedmon Southern California 3.51 Jr 4.05 8
49 CJ Leslie North Carolina St. 3.31 Jr 3.78 8
50 Vander Blue Marquette 3.78 Jr 3.71 7
51 Robert Covington Tennessee St. 3.66 Sr 3.66 7
52 Will Clyburn Iowa St. 3.53 Sr 3.53 7
  Bojan Dubljevic Valencia, Intl       7
  Livio Jean-Charles Villeurbanne, Intl       7
53 BJ Young Arkansas 2.86 So 3.20 6
54 Tony Mitchell North Texas 2.09 So 3.04 6
  Augusto Cesar Lima Malaga, Intl       5
55 Tony Snell New Mexico 2.18 Jr 2.46 5
56 Phil Pressey Missouri 3.59 Jr 2.37 5
57 Myck Kabongo Texas 2.25 So 1.92 4
58 Adonis Thomas Memphis 0.56 So 1.00 2
  Joffrey Lauvergne Partizan, Intl       1
  Norvel Pelle La College Prep, Fr       1

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