Injury-Free AL East Projections

The New York Yankees would have likely improved by three games in the first-half if every team had been healthy. That would move them from their current fourth place ahead of the healthier Orioles and Rays to second place and a wildcard game against the Oakland A's. The projected standings if every player had been healthy are below.

Tampa Bay and Baltimore have both been blessed with a very healthy first-half, meaning they probably would have finished about a game worse with just an average number of injuries. With the Yankees appearing to be at full-strength for the second-half, it appears the American League East could be in a tight battle with the A's or Rangers from the West for the two wild card spots. Boston remains the strong favorite for the AL East title.

We give the edge to the Yankees assuming Francisco Cervelli heals from his fractured hand in April and they receive decent performances from shortstop Derek Jeter, third baseman Alex Rodriguez and center fielder Curtis Granderson. The Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes has been a big addition, but we still project them to finish fifth in the toughest division in baseball. 

AL East Act W Act L Full Strength Proj W Proj L Proj % Proj GB
Boston 58 39 0 58 39 0.598 0.0
NY Yankees 51 44 3 54 41 0.568 3.0
Tampa Bay 55 41 -1 54 42 0.563 3.5
Baltimore 53 43 -1 52 44 0.542 5.5
Toronto 45 49 1 46 48 0.489 10.5

The following are the players in the division who are expected to play most or all of the second-half of the season, and probably would have added at least a win (0.5 or above rounded up) to the team’s win total in the first-half if they could have played at least 75 games (or come out of the bullpen for 30 appearances or been on the mound for 15 starts).

To be listed a player must have been worth at least 0.5 wins prior to the break or have been worth at least 1.2 wins in their last full season before an injury forced them to miss the first half. Calculations are based on the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat as reported on http://www.baseball-reference.com/

A player who was worth 0.5 Wins in 25 games played would have been worth an additional 1.0 Wins if he had played 75 games in the first half, while a player who was worth 1.0 wins in 50 games would have been worth an additional 0.5 Wins if he had played 75 games. Star players who missed the entire first-half are credited with 40 percent of their WAR for the last full season they played. Players who are not expected to return by early August are not considered in these projections.

 

Team AL East- If they'd been healthy WAR GP If played… ...Extra Wins
Balt Wei-Yin Chen 1.5 18 30 1.0
Bos Jose Iglesias 2.2 51 75 1.0
Bos Clay Buchholz 4 24 30 1.0
Bos Shane Victorino 2.9 64 75 0.5
NYY Alex Rodriguez (2012) 2.3 0 75 0.9
NYY Francisco Cervelli 0.8 17 75 1.4
NYY Curtis Granderson (2012) 3 0 75 1.2
NYY Derek Jeter (2012) 2.2 0 75 0.9
NYY Ivan Nova 0.8 17 30 0.6
NYY Adam Warren 0.6 15 30 0.6
TB Alex Torres 1.3 16 30 1.1
Tor Jose Reyes 0.8 27 75 1.4
Tor Juan Perez 0.8 12 30 1.2
Tor Brett Lawrie 0.7 38 75 0.7

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