Injury-Free AL West Projections

If everyone was healthy in the American League West the Texas Rangers would likely be in first place. Third baseman Jeff Baker and pitchers Colby Lewis, Ross Wolf, Neftali Feliz and Alexi Oquando all had limited playing time while the Oakland A's were one of only two teams that benefited from no substantial injuries.

It must be something in the water under the Golden Gate bridge, because the only other team with no substantial injuries was the San Francisco Giants.

Seattle's Brad Miller (pictured) may be the biggest second-half addition after proving to be a strong leadoff hitter and shortstop since his surprise call-up from the minors, but it is unlikely the Mariners can come close in the Texas-Oakland showdown.

While baseball should be at fever-pitch after Yoenis Cespedes's dominant Home Run Derby performance, the A’s probably played about as well as they could in the first-half at full-strength to take a 2-game lead into the break. The Rangers are projected to do one game better at full-strength. That still leaves the A’s with a slight edge in the two-way race of World Series contenders.

AL West Act W Act L Full Strength Proj W Proj L Proj % Proj GB
Texas 54 41 1 55 40 0.579 0.0
Oakland 56 39 -2 54 41 0.568 1.0
LA Angels 44 49 1 45 48 0.484 9.0
Seattle 43 52 0 43 52 0.453 12.0
Houston 33 61 -1 32 62 0.340 22.5

The following are the players in the division who are expected to play most or all of the second-half of the season, and probably would have added at least a win (0.5 or above rounded up) to the team’s win total in the first half if they could have played at least 75 games (or come out of the bullpen for 30 appearances or been on the mound for 15 starts).

To be listed a player must have been worth at least 0.5 wins prior to the break or have been worth at least 1.2 wins in their last full-season before an injury forced them to miss the first-half. Calculations are based on the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat as reported on http://www.baseball-reference.com/.

A player who was worth 0.5 Wins in 25 games played would have been worth an additional 1.0 Wins if he had played 75 games in the first half, while a player who was worth 1.0 wins in 50 games would have been worth an additional 0.5 Wins if he had played 75 games. Star players who missed the entire first-half are credited with 40 percent of their WAR for the last full season they played. Players who are not expected to return by early August are not considered in these projections.

Team AL West - If they'd been healthy WAR GP If played… ...Extra Wins
Hou Carlos Corporan 1 36 75 1.1
LAA Sean Burnett 0.6 13 30 0.8
LAA Billy Buckner 0.3 8 30 0.5
LAA Hank Conger 1.1 47 75 0.7
LAA Peter Bourjos 1.3 40 75 1.1
Oak No key injuries 0 na na 0.0
Sea Brad Miller 0.8 15 75 1.4
Sea Stephen Pryor 0.6 7 30 1.1
Tex Jeff Baker 0.7 37 75 0.7
Tex Colby Lewis (2012) 2.1 0 75 0.8
Tex Ross Wolf 0.9 15 30 0.9
Tex Neftali Feliz (2012) 1.4 0 75 0.6
Tex Alexi Oquando 1.3 20 30 0.7

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