Injury-Free NL East Projections

The Nationals will get a huge boost from both Ross Ohlendorf being on the mound more and Wilson Ramos (pictured) finally being able to catch most days as he seems back 100% after knee surgery. However, even if every NL East team were at full strength in the first half the Braves likely would have had a four-game lead over the Nationals. The projections for the first half if everyone was healthy are shown below.

The Miami Marlins are the only NL East team that should jump dramatically in the second half with young players surging, but that still likely leaves them well back in fifth place. More at bats for Brian McCann and Evan Gattis in the second half should help the Braves maintain their lead over the Nationals, though Ramiro Pena is likely out for the season after a strong first half. 

NL East Act W Act L Full Strength Proj W Proj L Proj % Proj GB
Atlanta 54 41 -1 53 42 0.558 0.0
Washington 48 47 1 49 46 0.516 4.0
Philadelphia 48 48 0 48 48 0.500 5.5
NY Mets 41 50 1 42 49 0.462 9.0
Miami 35 58 4 39 54 0.419 13.0

The following are the players in the division who are expected to play most or all of the second half of the season, and probably would have added at least a win (0.5 or above rounded up) to the team’s win total in the first half if they could have played at least 75 games (or come out of the bullpen for 30 appearances or been on the mound for 15 starts). To be listed a player must have been worth at least 0.5 wins prior to the break or have been worth at least 1.2 wins in their last full season before an injury forced them to miss the first half. Calculations are based on the calculations of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as reported on http://www.baseball-reference.com/.

A player who was worth 0.5 wins in 25 games played would have been worth an additional 1.0 wins if he had played 75 games in the first half, while a player who was worth 1.0 wins in 50 games would have been worth an additional 0.5 wins if he had played 75 games. Star players who missed the entire first half are credited with 40% of their WAR for the last full season they played. Players who are not expected to return by early August are not considered in these projections. 

Team NL East - If they'd been healthy WAR GP If played… ...Extra Wins
Atl Evan Gattis 1.8 53 75 0.7
Atl Brian McCann 2 53 75 0.8
Atl Ramiro Pena (out season) 1 50 75 0.5
Mia Jeff Mathis 0.8 28 75 1.3
Mia Ed Lucas 1.2 33 75 1.5
Mia Nathan Eovaldi 1 10 30 1.7
Mia Jacob Turner 2 16 30 1.8
Mia Logan Morrison 0.5 24 75 0.9
NYM Carlos Torres 1.1 12 30 1.7
NYM John Satin 1.1 21 75 1.9
Phi Darin Ruf 0.6 8 75 1.1
Phi Tyler Cloyd 0.7 12 30 1.1
Was Wilson Ramos 0.9 22 75 1.6
Was Ross Ohlendorf 0.7 8 30 1.2


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