Injury-Free NL West Projections

If the Dodgers had Stephen Fife (2.74 ERA in 13 career starts) in the rotation the entire season, and had Yasiel Puig, Scott Van Slyke and Hanley Ramirez (pictured) in the line-up all year, they would be 10 games above .500 even if every other team was healthy as well. That would put the Dodgers five games ahead of the Arizona, making the Diamondbacks' current 2 1/2 game lead very shaky. The projected standings below show the Dodgers as the favorites to take the weak division.

Fife came back from shoulder bursitis to post a 2.21 ERA over six starts, though the shoulder is swollen again, and demoting Van Slyke back to the minors to make room for Carl Crawford may be a mistake as he has out performed Crawford.

No team has more upside than a healthy Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Giants did not have any significant injuries. The Padres likewise should fade. Their one substantial injured player is Yasmani Grandal, but it appears he will not return. 

NL West Act W Act L Full Strength Proj W Proj L Proj % Proj GB
LA Dodgers 47 47 5 52 42 0.553 0.0
Arizona 50 45 -2 48 47 0.505 4.5
Colorado 46 50 -1 45 51 0.469 8.0
San Francisco 43 51 -2 41 53 0.436 11.0
San Diego 42 54 -2 40 56 0.417 13.0

The following are the players in the division who are expected to play most or all of the second half of the season, and probably would have added at least a win (0.5 or above rounded up) to the team’s win total in the first half if they could have played at least 75 games (or come out of the bullpen for 30 appearances or been on the mound for 15 starts). To be listed a player must have been worth at least 0.5 wins prior to the break or have been worth at least 1.2 wins in their last full season before an injury forced them to miss the first half. Calculations are based on the calculations of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as reported on http://www.baseball-reference.com/.

A player who was worth 0.5 Wins in 25 games played would have been worth an additional 1.0 Wins if he had played 75 games in the first half, while a player who was worth 1.0 wins in 50 games would have been worth an additional 0.5 Wins if he had played 75 games. Star players who missed the entire first half are credited with 40% of their WAR for the last full season they played. Players who are not expected to return by early August are not considered in these projections.

Team NL West - If they'd been healthy WAR GP If played… ...Extra Wins
AZ Josh Wilson 0.4 30 75 0.6
Col Troy Tulowitzki 3.4 63 75 0.6
Col Tyler Chatwood 2.9 24 30 0.7
LAD Yasiel Puig 2.7 37 75 2.8
LAD Scott Van Slyke 0.6 31 75 0.9
LAD Hanley Ramirez 2.5 38 75 2.4
LAD Stephen Fife 0.7 8 30 1.2
SD Yasmani Grandal (out season) 0.7 28 75 1.2
SF No key injuries 0 NA NA 0.0

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