Exclusive: Pitcher Winning Percentages vs. Runs Scored for 2013 Season

When a team scored four runs their pitcher was able to get them the victory 56 percent of the time this season. The final 2013 game-by-game tab on the final database at www.valueaddbaseball.com is complete, and it also shows that in 627 such games this season the pitcher was successful in only 27% of games in which their team scored 1-3 runs. The breakdown of a pitcher pulling off the victory based on runs scored is shown on the table below, followed by a table of how many Games Started and Victories each of the top 10 pitchers had this season, and what the average score of their games was to show their overall support.

In the database, the pitcher receives a Victory for either a traditional “Win,” or for a game in which he pitches at least five innings and his team scores the winning runs after a reliever enters the game. Only pitchers who started at least five major league games are included, so this does not include spot starters who filled in for an injured starter for a game or two.

RS	GS	Wins	%Win
0	318	0	0%
1	526	48	9%
2	726	186	26%
3	696	287	41%
4	627	348	56%
5	503	319	63%
6	421	314	75%
7	294	231	79%
8+	617	512	83%
All	4728	2245	47%

The first few columns in the database is show below. Clayton Kershaw had the top Value Add. In 33 starts (GS) he achieved 19 Victories (-Wins) for a 33-19. The average score in a game he pitched was 3.8 to 2.5 in favor of the Dodgers.

Rank	Player	Team	Value Add	IP	ER	GS-Wins	Score
1	Kershaw, Clayton	LAD	15.37	236	48	33-19	3.8-2.5
2	Corbin, Patrick	ARI	14.81	208.1	79	32-22	4.6-3.6
3	Scherzer, Max	DET	14.58	214.1	69	32-25	5.6-2.9
4	Sale, Chris	CHW	14.06	214.1	73	30-14	3.2-3.7
5	Latos, Mat	CIN	14.06	210.2	74	32-20	4.5-3.4
6	Wainwright, Adam	STL	13.78	241.2	79	34-23	4.6-3.0
7	Shields, James	KC	13.69	228.2	80	34-21	4.2-3.2
8	Teheran, Julio	ATL	13.3	185.2	66	30-20	4.0-2.9
9	Zimmermann, Jordan	WSH	13.22	213.1	77	32-22	4.4-3.3
10	Lee, Cliff	PHI	13.13	222.2	71	31-16	3.3-3.3