Exclusive: Pitcher Winning Percentages vs. Runs Scored for 2013 Season

When a team scored four runs their pitcher was able to get them the victory 56 percent of the time this season. The final 2013 game-by-game tab on the final database at www.valueaddbaseball.com is complete, and it also shows that in 627 such games this season the pitcher was successful in only 27% of games in which their team scored 1-3 runs. The breakdown of a pitcher pulling off the victory based on runs scored is shown on the table below, followed by a table of how many Games Started and Victories each of the top 10 pitchers had this season, and what the average score of their games was to show their overall support.

In the database, the pitcher receives a Victory for either a traditional "Win," or for a game in which he pitches at least five innings and his team scores the winning runs after a reliever enters the game. Only pitchers who started at least five major league games are included, so this does not include spot starters who filled in for an injured starter for a game or two.

RS GS Wins %Win
0 318 0 0%
1 526 48 9%
2 726 186 26%
3 696 287 41%
4 627 348 56%
5 503 319 63%
6 421 314 75%
7 294 231 79%
8+ 617 512 83%
All 4728 2245 47%

The first few columns in the database is show below. Clayton Kershaw had the top Value Add. In 33 starts (GS) he achieved 19 Victories (-Wins) for a 33-19. The average score in a game he pitched was 3.8 to 2.5 in favor of the Dodgers.

Rank Player Team Value Add IP ER GS-Wins Score
1 Kershaw, Clayton LAD 15.37 236 48 33-19 3.8-2.5
2 Corbin, Patrick ARI 14.81 208.1 79 32-22 4.6-3.6
3 Scherzer, Max DET 14.58 214.1 69 32-25 5.6-2.9
4 Sale, Chris CHW 14.06 214.1 73 30-14 3.2-3.7
5 Latos, Mat CIN 14.06 210.2 74 32-20 4.5-3.4
6 Wainwright, Adam STL 13.78 241.2 79 34-23 4.6-3.0
7 Shields, James KC 13.69 228.2 80 34-21 4.2-3.2
8 Teheran, Julio ATL 13.3 185.2 66 30-20 4.0-2.9
9 Zimmermann, Jordan WSH 13.22 213.1 77 32-22 4.4-3.3
10 Lee, Cliff PHI 13.13 222.2 71 31-16 3.3-3.3

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