2014 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Analyzing West Region (Part II)

The following are the Value Add Rankings for each player in the bottom half of the West Region, their team’s seed, height, year in school, and which players are NBA prospects (all caps). The teams are American (15-seed), Baylor (6), BYU (10), Creighton (3), Lafayette (14), Nebraska (11), Oregon (7) and Wisconsin (2).

The upset being talked about the most is a hot Nebraska team (improved from 75th to 48th) defeating Baylor. But the Cornhuskers face an equally hot Baylor team (54th to 31st).

Home Advantage: Staying in the state of Texas could be just enough to help Baylor avoid an upset against Nebraska. A Nebraska upset would in turn set up a state championship between them and Creighton. Wisconsin looks like an even more sure bet in Milwaukee for two games, but they would have a tough time if the Elite 8 game has them against either Arizona or San Diego State in Anaheim.

The items listed for the top few players on each team should be the biggest considerations along with, injured players, the home advantage and which team is going into the tournament the hottest (which we define as improving the most at www.kenpom.com over the past month of the season). An explanation of the Value Add system, which measures how many points a player adds to his team’s score (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2014/03/16/value-add-top-68-players-selection-sunday), and his overall impact on points once defense is factored (“Total” on the table).

An explanation of Value Add:

The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team's score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced and opponent's missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent's score. When all calculated together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com results in the player's offensive and defensive combination.

Bottom West Bracket Players (teams listed in order they appear on bracket):
Rnk Player Seed Team Ht Yr NBA/g Off Total
66 Cory Jefferson 6 Baylor 6' 9" Sr PF 3.78 4.56
105 Brady Heslip 6 Baylor 6' 2" Sr SG 4.92 4.01
260 Kenny Chery 6 Baylor 5' 11" Jr   3.44 2.78
271 Isaiah Austin 6 Baylor 7' 1" So C 1.40 2.70
333 Rico Gathers 6 Baylor 6' 8" So   1.36 2.33
390 Royce O'Neale 6 Baylor 6' 6" Jr   2.43 2.08
1170 Taurean Prince 6 Baylor 6' 7" So   0.56 0.59
1950 Ish Wainright 6 Baylor 6' 5" Fr   0.00 0.13
2114 Gary Franklin 6 Baylor 6' 2" Sr   0.14 0.07
178 Walter Pitchford 11 Nebraska 6' 10" So   3.32 3.26
308 Terran Petteway 11 Nebraska 6' 6" So   2.42 2.47
381 Shavon Shields 11 Nebraska 6' 7" So   2.25 2.12
568 Leslee Smith 11 Nebraska 6' 8" Jr   0.26 1.50
761 Benny Parker 11 Nebraska 5' 9" So g 0.33 1.16
977 David Rivers 11 Nebraska 6' 7" Jr   0.48 0.80
1237 Ray Gallegos 11 Nebraska 6' 2" Sr   1.06 0.53
1638 Deverell Biggs 11 Nebraska 6' 0 Jr   0.00 0.27
2313 Tai Webster 11 Nebraska 6' 4" Fr g 0.00 0.00
3 Doug McDermott 3 Creighton 6' 8" Sr PF 8.77 7.87
203 Ethan Wragge 3 Creighton 6' 7" Sr   4.20 3.14
222 Jahenns Manigat 3 Creighton 6' 1" Sr   3.44 3.02
365 Devin Brooks 3 Creighton 6' 2" Jr g 1.43 2.16
511 Will Artino 3 Creighton 6' 11" Jr   1.79 1.67
532 Austin Chatman 3 Creighton 6' 0 Jr g 2.57 1.61
667 Grant Gibbs 3 Creighton 6' 5" Sr   2.36 1.31
1395 Isaiah Zierden 3 Creighton 6' 2" Fr   0.81 0.40
1787 Avery Dingman 3 Creighton 6' 6" Jr   0.41 0.21
641 Bryce Scott 14 Lafayette 6' 3" So   2.72 1.36
648 Joey Ptasinski 14 Lafayette 6' 2" Jr   2.70 1.35
960 Seth Hinrichs 14 Lafayette 6' 7" Jr   1.63 0.82
984 Nick Lindner 14 Lafayette 5' 10" Fr g 1.56 0.78
1121 Dan Trist 14 Lafayette 6' 9" Jr   1.28 0.64
1549 Michael Hoffman 14 Lafayette 6' 7" Fr   0.63 0.32
2062 Alan Flannigan 14 Lafayette 6' 6" Jr   0.18 0.09
2155 Zach Rufer 14 Lafayette 6' 2" So   0.00 0.06
  Ben Freeland 14 Lafayette 6' 9" So   0.00 0.00
  Monty Boykins 14 Lafayette 6' 4" Fr   0.00 0.00
  Nathaniel Musters 14 Lafayette 6' 10" So   0.00 0.00
176 Tyler Haws 10 BYU 6' 5" Jr   4.77 3.27
367 Matt Carlino 10 BYU 6' 2" Jr g 1.49 2.15
377 Kyle Collinsworth 10 BYU 6' 6" So   1.91 2.13
428 Anson Winder 10 BYU 6' 3" Jr g 2.03 1.95
788 Nate Austin 10 BYU 6' 11" Jr   0.97 1.09
890 Eric Mika 10 BYU 6' 9" Fr   1.80 0.92
1227 Skyler Halford 10 BYU 6' 1" Jr   1.07 0.54
1603 Josh Sharp 10 BYU 6' 7" Jr   0.58 0.29
  Frank Bartley 10 BYU 6' 3" Fr   0.00 0.00
  Luke Worthington 10 BYU 6' 10" Fr   0.00 0.00
25 Joseph Young 7 Oregon 6' 2" Jr   6.18 5.60
67 Mike Moser 7 Oregon 6' 8" Sr PF 2.70 4.51
119 Jason Calliste 7 Oregon 6' 2" Sr   4.46 3.84
294 Johnathan Loyd 7 Oregon 5' 8" Sr g 2.36 2.56
504 Elgin Cook 7 Oregon 6' 6" So   1.63 1.70
880 Richard Amardi 7 Oregon 6' 8" Sr   0.37 0.94
1142 Damyean Dotson 7 Oregon 6' 5" So   1.25 0.62
1449 Ben Carter 7 Oregon 6' 8" So   0.34 0.37
1550 Waverly Austin 7 Oregon 6' 11" Sr   0.07 0.32
  Dominic Artis 7 Oregon 6' 1" So   0.00 0.00
166 Tony Wroblicky 15 American 6' 10" Sr   1.50 3.40
197 Darius Gardner 15 American 5' 9" Jr g 1.63 3.20
348 Jesse Reed 15 American 6' 5" So   2.13 2.26
1218 John Schoof 15 American 6' 5" Jr g 1.09 0.54
1571 Kyle Kager 15 American 6' 8" Jr   0.00 0.31
2043 Marko Vasic 15 American 6' 5" So   0.19 0.09
2108 Austin Carroll 15 American 6' 3" Jr   0.14 0.07
  Charlie Jones 15 American 6' 5" Fr   0.00 0.00
  Justice Montgomery 15 American 5' 11" Fr   0.00 0.00
  Yilret Yiljep 15 American 6' 7" Fr   0.00 0.00
16 Frank Kaminsky 2 Wisconsin 7' 0 Jr   5.12 6.09
87 Sam Dekker 2 Wisconsin 6' 7" So SF 3.71 4.18
98 Ben Brust 2 Wisconsin 6' 1" Sr g 4.40 4.12
168 Josh Gasser 2 Wisconsin 6' 3" Jr   4.27 3.36
515 Nigel Hayes 2 Wisconsin 6' 7" Fr   1.32 1.65
728 Traevon Jackson 2 Wisconsin 6' 2" Jr   1.85 1.22
1100 Bronson Koenig 2 Wisconsin 6' 3" Fr   1.08 0.66
1231 Duje Dukan 2 Wisconsin 6' 9" Jr   0.83 0.53

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