2014 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Analyzing West Region (Part I)

Marcus Smart is the top-rated Value Add player in the West region and Smart gives Arizona fits. If Arizona beats Oklahoma State, San Diego State could give them trouble as well, according to Value Add projections. Here is an analysis of the West region.

The following are the Value Add Rankings for each player in the top half of the West Region, their team’s seed, height, year in school, and which players are NBA prospects (all caps). The teams are Arizona (1-seed), Gonzaga (8), North Dakota St. (12), New Mexico St. (13), Oklahoma (5), Oklahoma St. (9), San Diego State (4), and Weber St. (16). Most likely upsets:

A hot North Dakota State (improved from 85th to 55th in one month) could upset Oklahoma in the opening round. San Diego has the chance to win the entire Region with a couple of upsets.

Home Advantage: Arizona’s top seed is only helped by staying out west, but San Diego State could have the edge in Anaheim to pull the upset against them in the third game for each team.

The items listed for the top few players on each team should be the biggest considerations along with, injured players, the home advantage, and which team is going into the tournament the hottest (which we define as improving the most at www.kenpom.com over the past month of the season). An explanation of the Value Add system, which measures how many points a player adds to his team’s score (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2014/03/16/value-add-top-68-players-selection-sunday), and his overall impact on points once defense is factored (“Total” on the table).

An explanation of Value Add:

The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team's score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced and opponent's missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent's score. When all calculated together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com results in the player's offensive and defensive combination.

Top West Bracket Players (teams in order they appear on bracket):
Rnk Player Seed Team Ht Yr NBA/g Off Total
17 Nick Johnson 1 Arizona 6' 3" Jr SG 4.15 6.02
60 TJ McConnell 1 Arizona 6' 1" Jr   2.61 4.73
128 Aaron Gordon 1 Arizona 6' 9" Fr SF/PF 1.73 3.79
186 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 1 Arizona 6' 7" Fr   2.05 3.22
221 Kaleb Tarczewski 1 Arizona 7' 0 So C 2.15 3.02
320 Brandon Ashley 1 Arizona 6' 8" So   1.73 2.39
497 Gabe York 1 Arizona 6' 3" So   1.84 1.72
1177 Jordin Mayes 1 Arizona 6' 3" Sr   0.00 0.59
1277 Elliott Pitts 1 Arizona 6' 5" Fr   0.12 0.49
257 Davion Berry 16 Weber St. 6' 4" Sr g 3.79 2.80
536 Joel Bolomboy 16 Weber St. 6' 9" So   1.48 1.60
1283 Jeremy Senglin 16 Weber St. 6' 2" Fr   0.97 0.49
1479 Kyle Tresnak 16 Weber St. 6' 10" Sr   0.71 0.35
2012 Kyndahl Hill 16 Weber St. 6' 7" Fr   0.21 0.10
  Jordan Richardson 16 Weber St. 6' 1" Sr g 0.00 0.00
  Richaud Gittens 16 Weber St. 6' 4" Fr   0.00 0.00
  Royce Williams 16 Weber St. 6' 5" Jr   0.00 0.00
65 Sam Dower 8 Gonzaga 6' 9" Sr   3.84 4.59
111 Kevin Pangos 8 Gonzaga 6' 2" Jr PG 3.58 3.91
286 Gary Bell 8 Gonzaga 6' 1" Jr   2.41 2.60
322 Drew Barham 8 Gonzaga 6' 6" Sr   2.06 2.38
424 David Stockton 8 Gonzaga 5' 11" Sr   1.01 1.96
441 Przemek Karnowski 8 Gonzaga 7' 1" So C 0.50 1.91
450 Kyle Dranginis 8 Gonzaga 6' 5" So   1.13 1.89
1685 Angel Nunez 8 Gonzaga 6' 8" So   0.02 0.25
2045 Gerard Coleman 8 Gonzaga 6' 4" Jr   0.00 0.09
8 Marcus Smart 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 4" So PG 3.46 6.91
53 Markel Brown 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 3" Sr   4.60 4.85
159 Phil Forte 9 Oklahoma St. 5' 11" So   4.56 3.50
189 Le'Bryan Nash 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 7" Jr SF 2.58 3.21
512 Kamari Murphy 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 8" So   0.96 1.67
652 Brian Williams 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 5" Jr   0.97 1.34
1266 Stevie Clark 9 Oklahoma St. 5' 11" Fr   0.42 0.50
1273 Michael Cobbins 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 8" Jr   0.15 0.49
  Leyton Hammonds 9 Oklahoma St. 6' 7" Fr   0.00 0.00
41 Taylor Braun 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 7" Sr   5.57 5.14
391 Marshall Bjorklund 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 8" Sr   3.57 2.08
405 Kory Brown 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 4" So   2.77 2.04
410 TrayVonn Wright 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 7" Sr   2.43 2.02
1298 Jordan Aaberg 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 9" Sr   0.95 0.47
1374 Lawrence Alexander 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 3" Jr g 0.83 0.41
1390 Chris Kading 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 8" So   0.81 0.41
1645 Mike Felt 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 3" Sr g 0.53 0.27
  Carlin Dupree 12 N. Dakota St. 6' 3" Fr   0.00 0.00
81 Ryan Spangler 5 Oklahoma 6' 8" So   3.80 4.27
219 Cameron Clark 5 Oklahoma 6' 7" Sr   2.91 3.05
225 Buddy Hield 5 Oklahoma 6' 4" So   3.66 2.99
525 Isaiah Cousins 5 Oklahoma 6' 4" So   2.23 1.62
792 Tyler Neal 5 Oklahoma 6' 7" Sr   1.41 1.09
867 Jordan Woodard 5 Oklahoma 6' 0 Fr   1.91 0.95
1155 DJ Bennett 5 Oklahoma 6' 8" Jr   0.42 0.61
1385 Frank Booker 5 Oklahoma 6' 4" Fr   0.81 0.41
1650 Je'lon Hornbeak 5 Oklahoma 6' 4" So   0.53 0.27
90 Daniel Mullings 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 2" Jr g 2.52 4.16
449 Sim Bhullar 13 N. Mexico St. 7' 5" So   1.13 1.89
575 Renaldo Dixon 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 10" Sr   1.70 1.49
599 Tshilidzi Nephawe 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 10" Jr   1.04 1.44
754 KC Ross-Miller 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 1" Jr g 1.60 1.18
887 DK Eldridge 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 2" Jr   1.85 0.93
896 Kevin Aronis 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 3" Sr   1.83 0.92
2261 Ian Baker 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 0 Fr   0.04 0.02
  Matej Buovac 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 7" So   0.00 0.00
  Travon Landry 13 N. Mexico St. 6' 1" Fr   0.00 0.00
10 Xavier Thames 4 San Diego St. 6' 3" Sr g 5.15 6.83
411 Josh Davis 4 San Diego St. 6' 8" Sr   0.19 2.01
418 Dwayne Polee 4 San Diego St. 6' 7" Jr   0.77 1.99
461 Skylar Spencer 4 San Diego St. 6' 10" So   0.65 1.85
829 Winston Shepard 4 San Diego St. 6' 8" So SF 0.00 1.03
928 Aqeel Quinn 4 San Diego St. 6' 3" Jr   0.35 0.87
1119 Matt Shrigley 4 San Diego St. 6' 6" Fr   0.79 0.64
1176 Dakarai Allen 4 San Diego St. 6' 5" Fr   0.00 0.59
1756 JJ O'Brien 4 San Diego St. 6' 7" Jr   0.35 0.22
  D'Erryl Williams 4 San Diego St. 6' 2" Fr   0.00 0.00

advertisement

Breitbart Video Picks

advertisement

advertisement

advertisement

Send A Tip

From Our Partners

Fox News Sports