Value Add: Wright, McDermott Hold Onto Top Spots

It appears Utah's Delon Wright will hold onto the top Value Add ranking in the updated Top 100 below despite Shabazz Napier's incredible tournament run. Doug McDermott will be the most valuable offensive player by the second largest margin of any year. Wright improved Utah's scoring margin by 8.39 points per game, while McDermott was worth 8.30 on offense but slightly less (7.07) once defense was accounted for in a system explained by Sports Illustrated here

The Value Add system accounts for every statistic available for each player that either hurts the team's scoring margin or helps it over what would happen if a good bench player from a power conference took his place. For example, based on Wright's 8.39 rating we would expect that if Utah won a game 75-68 on a given night, that if a good bench player had taken his place that night they would have lost 70-71 (5 more points generated by Wright on offense, and three points taken away from opponents). Most fans assume the impact would be greater, but when a star player is lost the second best player gets more shots, etc., and a player who changes the score by eight points a game on average will normally dramatically improve his team's record. Utah had only one other player in the Top 700 players.

The players who still have games left to impact their rating are marked "alive," but Napier is probably too far behind Wright (improves UConn's score by 8.05) to catch him even if he led the Huskies to the title, and he is way ahead of third-place Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati. McDermott dropped from third to seven after a very poor offensive and defensive performance against Baylor, but was still by far the top offensive player (8.30 to 7.01 for Billy Baron). The database of all Division 1 players will be updated shortly at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Rnk Alive? Player Team Ht Yr Offense Value Add
1   Delon Wright Utah 6' 5" Jr 4.99 8.39
2 Alive Shabazz Napier Connecticut 6' 1" Sr 5.21 8.05
3   Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 6' 4" Sr 5.75 7.37
4   Jordan Adams UCLA 6' 5" So 4.99 7.22
5   TJ Warren North Carolina St. 6' 8" So 5.59 7.16
6   Billy Baron Canisius 6' 2" Sr 7.01 7.16
7   Doug McDermott Creighton 6' 8" Sr 8.30 7.07
8   Trevor Releford Alabama 6' 0 Sr 5.06 6.97
9   Xavier Thames San Diego St. 6' 3" Sr 5.37 6.90
10   Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 6' 4" So 3.38 6.85
11   KJ McDaniels Clemson 6' 6" Jr 3.47 6.62
12 Alive Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 7' 0 Jr 5.54 6.50
13   Jarnell Stokes Tennessee 6' 8" Jr 4.85 6.47
14   Russ Smith Louisville 6' 0 Sr 3.99 6.42
15   Fred Van Vleet Wichita St. 5' 11" So 5.02 6.08
16   Briante Weber VCU 6' 2" Jr 1.78 6.06
17   Nick Johnson Arizona 6' 3" Jr 4.05 5.92
18   Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh 6' 5" Sr 4.32 5.84
19   Montrezl Harrell Louisville 6' 8" So 3.51 5.83
20   Langston Galloway Saint Joseph's 6' 2" Sr 5.70 5.73
21   Jabari Parker Duke 6' 8" Fr 4.27 5.71
22   RJ Hunter Georgia St. 6' 5" So 4.36 5.64
23   Ryan Watkins Boise St. 6' 9" Sr 5.56 5.61
24   Joseph Young Oregon 6' 2" Jr 6.22 5.61
25   Tyler Ennis Syracuse 6' 2" Fr 3.71 5.55
26   Kyle Anderson (UCLA) UCLA 6' 9" So 3.20 5.49
27   Jordan McRae Tennessee 6' 6" Sr 4.87 5.46
28 Alive Michael Frazier Florida 6' 4" So 4.26 5.45
29   Cameron Bairstow New Mexico 6' 9" Sr 5.04 5.43
30   Javon McCrea Buffalo 6' 7" Sr 3.94 5.33
31   Kendrick Perry Youngstown St. 6' 0 Sr 5.50 5.33
32   Kendall Williams New Mexico 6' 4" Sr 4.80 5.29
33   Perry Ellis Kansas 6' 8" So 4.42 5.25
34   Juwan Staten West Virginia 6' 1" Jr 5.05 5.25
35   Marcus Paige North Carolina 6' 1" So 4.82 5.24
36   Jalan West Northwestern St. 5' 10" So 4.43 5.21
37   Keifer Sykes Green Bay 5' 11" Jr 4.84 5.20
38 Alive Julius Randle Kentucky 6' 9" Fr 3.60 5.15
39   Khem Birch UNLV 6' 9" Jr 3.02 5.12
40   Gary Harris Michigan St. 6' 4" So 3.91 5.10
41   Rayvonte Rice Illinois 6' 4" Jr 2.73 5.07
42   Alan Williams UC Santa Barbara 6' 7" Jr 2.79 5.06
43   Nik Stauskas Michigan 6' 6" So 6.59 5.00
44   Justin Jackson Cincinnati 6' 8" Sr 1.28 4.99
45 Alive Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 7' 0 So 2.22 4.95
46   D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera Georgetown 6' 3" So 5.38 4.93
47   Larry Nance Wyoming 6' 8" Jr 2.41 4.92
48   Shawn Jones Middle Tennessee 6' 8" Sr 3.06 4.91
49   Bryce Cotton Providence 6' 1" Sr 6.63 4.90
50   Deonte Burton (Nevada) Nevada 6' 1" Sr 4.92 4.89
51   Tymell Murphy FIU 6' 5" Sr 3.09 4.88
52   Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin 6' 6" Jr 4.02 4.85
53   TJ Bray Princeton 6' 5" Sr 5.55 4.85
54   Okaro White Florida St. 6' 8" Sr 3.76 4.79
55   Malcolm Brogdon Virginia 6' 5" So 3.52 4.74
56   Ron Baker Wichita St. 6' 3" So 3.71 4.72
57   Josh Scott Colorado 6' 10" So 4.21 4.72
58   Aaron Craft Ohio St. 6' 2" Sr 1.37 4.70
59   Markel Brown Oklahoma St. 6' 3" Sr 4.61 4.68
60   Egidijus Mockevicius Evansville 6' 10" So 2.80 4.66
61   Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa 6' 8" Jr 4.30 4.61
62   Joel Embiid Kansas 7' 0 Fr 2.04 4.57
63 Alive Casey Prather Florida 6' 6" Sr 3.44 4.45
64   Andrew Wiggins Kansas 6' 8" Fr 3.80 4.39
65   Devin Oliver Dayton 6' 7" Sr 4.15 4.39
66   Branden Dawson Michigan St. 6' 6" Jr 3.03 4.39
67   Trevor Cooney Syracuse 6' 4" So 3.64 4.39
68   CJ Wilcox Washington 6' 5" Sr 4.78 4.37
69   Tyreek Duren La Salle 6' 0 Sr 3.31 4.37
70   Talib Zanna Pittsburgh 6' 9" Jr 3.82 4.36
71 Alive Markus Kennedy SMU 6' 9" So 1.80 4.36
72 Alive Ben Brust Wisconsin 6' 1" Sr 4.57 4.33
73   Cory Jefferson Baylor 6' 9" Sr 3.41 4.33
74   Bobby Portis Arkansas 6' 10" Fr 2.84 4.32
75   Brandon Edwards UT Arlington 6' 6" Sr 4.69 4.31
76   Taylor Braun North Dakota St. 6' 7" Sr 4.75 4.28
77   TJ McConnell Arizona 6' 1" Jr 2.37 4.28
78 Alive Patric Young Florida 6' 9" Sr 2.63 4.27
79   Karvel Anderson Robert Morris 6' 2" Sr 5.33 4.26
80   TaShawn Thomas Houston 6' 8" Jr 3.18 4.25
81 Alive Tyler Johnson Fresno St. 6' 4" Sr 4.05 4.23
82   Aaron Gordon Arizona 6' 9" Fr 1.97 4.23
83   DeAndre Kane Iowa St. 6' 4" Sr 3.63 4.22
84   Daniel Miller Georgia Tech 6' 11" Sr 2.40 4.21
85   Mike Moser Oregon 6' 8" Sr 2.51 4.20
86   Brady Heslip Baylor 6' 2" Sr 4.98 4.16
87   Jordan Bachynski Arizona St. 8' 2" Sr 2.19 4.15
88 Alive Aaron Harrison Kentucky 6' 6" Fr 4.00 4.12
89   John Brown High Point 6' 8" So 3.98 4.11
90   Cleanthony Early Wichita St. 6' 8" Sr 3.59 4.10
91   Sam Dower Gonzaga 6' 9" Sr 3.47 4.08
92   Brice Johnson North Carolina 6' 9" So 2.20 4.07
93   JJ Mann Belmont 6' 6" Sr 3.77 4.07
94   Jason Calliste Oregon 6' 2" Sr 4.67 4.07
95 Alive Sam Dekker Wisconsin 6' 7" So 3.48 4.06
96   Dezmine Wells Maryland 6' 5" Jr 2.88 4.04
97   Coty Clarke Arkansas 6' 7" Sr 2.07 4.02
98   Stephen Holt Saint Mary's 6' 4" Sr 5.28 4.02
99   Manny Atkins Georgia St. 6' 6" Sr 3.63 4.02
100   Aaron Thomas Florida St. 6' 5" So 2.63 4.01

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