Derby, Muddy Derby: Analysis of the Kentucky Derby Horses
Today is the Kentucky Derby which was always a big event in my house when I was growing up. My family is in the horse-racing business and my mother is an expert on all things related. I spoke earlier to my mom and asked her for her thoughts on the line-up for the Derby today.
Here we go:
Mom says it's supposed to rain, so we are looking at a muddy, wet race.
(2) Oxbow- has a true distance pedigree, has erratic career, moves up in the slop, but he is coming out of the two hole (Liz adds: TWSS), he could be squashed coming out, but the first post will be empty so maybe not.
(3) Revolutionary- gonna come from behind, has Calvin Borel, has decent slop pedigree, battle-tested in all his races, doesn't win by whole lot, always in trouble in his races but finds a way to break out, Calvin is going to try to get over to the rail, also has a good slop pedigree.
(5) Normandy Invasion- if he can come out closer and not be so far behind he has a chance, if you aren't within a lenght or two of the by he time you hit the head of the stretch you're in trouble, he needs to break well and be closer than he usually is, he is usually too far back and gets going too late.
(6) longshot Mylute- moves way up on the mud, his father Midnight Lute won the Breeder's Cup and people think Mylute is a sprinter like his father, but that was only because his father had foot issues. Mylute doesn't have a sprinter pedigree as much as distance pedigree, he's good in the slop, he comes from behind, but is going to have to get out quicker so he is not so far behind in the race.
(8) Goldencents- from the same barn as I'll Have Another, a Doug O'Neill horse, won Santa Anita Derby, has fastest time in any of the preps. In Santa Anita, he really beat a bunch of sprinters; he beat Super 99 who is a sprinter and he beat Flashback in Santa Anita but Flashback was injured. Not sure he can do the distance.
(9) Overanalyze- moves up in the slop, his prep races are slow, slow in the Arkansas Derby, a Repole (started Vitamin Water) horse, he has some upsides because he moves up in the slop, not on of Mom's favorites.
(10) Palace Malice- not shown anything, but he is on the improve and he has a really good jockey (Mike Smith.)
(12) Itsmyluckyday- Mom is questioning his distance ability, has some fast buyer figures but ended up second to Orb in Florida Derby, not sure he has gone further than a mile sixteen, not sure he can go the distance.
(14) Verazano- four of four horse (winning streak), everyone's buzz horse up until the Wood Memorial, did not race as a two year old, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby that didn't race as a 2 years old, he has a good slop pedigree, but Mom doesn't think he can get the distance.
(16) Orb- Won the Florida Derby, on the improve, has been working really well at Churchill Downs, has as good slop pedigree, one of mom's favorites "he should win" he comes from behind they have been working him to get him out of the gate faster so he isn't so far behind.
(18) longshot Frac Daddy heavy closer, closes from far back in his races.
Mom's favorite four: Orb, Normandy Invasion, Goldencents, Revolutionary (long shots Mylute and Frac Daddy)
Other thoughts from Mom:
Vijack is good but he is a gelding and is coming out of the 20 hole, and "he is a freaky so he will not be a happy camper" too much noise (However, Big Brown won out of the 20 hole) not a bad little horse, can be wild, probably a little crazy. ***MOM UPDATES*** Vijack has won a race in the slop and they are packing his ears so he can't hear the noise since his starting post is right next to the grandstand.
Will Take Charge is coming out of 17, not sure about his distance ability, but his mother was a great horse.
Falling Sky is a speedster.
Charming Kitten never been on the dirt.
Line of Battle is from Ireland "no way he can win" got here on first of May, horses train differently over there, too much pressure, not used to crowds. Never been on dirt, he won the UAE Derby in Dubai so that qualified for Kentucky. An out of country horse who wants to win the Derby needs to come here and train 8 month before.
Mom adds: Things can change, everything depends on the trip (getting out of the gate) there are too many horses in the Kentucky Derby, should be limited to 14. (Mom says this every year) Most of the others really shouldn't be in the race, they aren't ready.
Also, "Mommy never bets" so take with a grain of salt.