The Conversation

Rain Again: Analysis of the Preakness Horses

Today is the Preakness, the second race in the Triple Crown. It is my personal favorite race of the Triple Crown Races. Here is a picture I took last year at the race:


 

My mother, who analyzed the Kentucky Derby HERE, sent me her analysis of the Preakness line-up. (Yes, I gave my mother an assignment and she stopped watching TVG long enough to write down her thoughts.)

Horses in Post Position Order:

1.  ORB--  KY Derby winner, continues to improve and impress. Looks much the best!

2.  Goldencents--  Was the best of weak CA. 3yr olds,  1 1/8 may be distance limit on a good day-- faded badly in Derby, but started was close to the lead, hard to control, has a fast pace, will probably tire out. 

3.  Titlletown Five-- Probable pace setter--Outclassed!!! (<---this means he doesn't really belong, my Mom tells me "horse people" will know what that means.)

4.  Departing-- Improving gelding, was 3rd in Louisiana Derby, won the Illinois Derby impressively but not much competition there. He's a closer, he could get a piece. Departing is a fresh horse, didn't run in the Kentucky Derby. 

5. Mylute--  Was my long shot in KY Derby. Will get a piece, can be closer on the pace or further back: he can be way far back or he can be in the middle but can come up either way. 

6  Oxbow--  Ran well in Derby, was close to pace and held on for 6th, he was only horse in Derby to be close to pace and stay up near the front the whole racew. He could surprise and outrun his odds.

7. Will Take Charge-- big horse (over 17 hands)--stopped in Derby when Verrazano weakened and dropped back in his path ending his momentum. (My mom says she loved his mother, Take Charge Lady.)

8.  Govenor Charlie-- only 3 previous starts, has natural ability, probably not ready.  Bob Baffert horse. 

9.  Itsmyluckyday-- may have 1 1/8 mile limit,  didn't pick up his feet in the Derby, was 15th.  

The way I (MOM SEES IT) see it---
Orb has won from pp (post position) 1 before in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. He has closed into a slow or fast pace, with racing luck he will win. There are 4 other horses very close in ability.  Mylute, Will Take Charge, Departing and Oxbow will fight it out for the places.  If I were a betting person, (<--Mom is not a betting person) this would be my play:

         1.  ORB
         2.  Mylute
         3.  Will Take Charge
         4.  Departing
         5.  Oxbow  

PLACES 2 THROUGH 5 ARE A CRAPSHOOT!!!  THEY COULD END UP IN ANY ORDER.


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