All bets on 'Brokeback' galloping to victory at Oscars

Taiwan-born director Ang Lee's aching story of forbidden love is the clear favourite to win the best picture Oscar four weeks after it first left its competition in the dust when the Academy Awards nods were unveiled.

Pundits wagering with online bookmakers have also pegged Lee to win the best director statuette, with "Walk the Line" star Reese Witherspoon and "Capote's" Philip Seymour Hoffman hotly tipped as favourites for the best actor gongs.

"It's clearly the favourite, and we'd be surprised if it didn't win," said Patrick Erlich of the Canada-based online betting website Sportsbook, which said "Brokeback" was the 1/9 favourite to win the top award on March 5.

The odds mean that its chances are so strong that a one-dollar bet would generate a profit of only 11 cents on the original investment.

Top British bookie William Hill gave the controversial movie 1/6 odds for best picture in a year in which a record number of punters are expected to lay wagers, while Britain's Readabet gave it 1/7 odds.

Trailing behind "Brokeback," which stars Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal as the star-crossed lovers, is the racially charged movie "Crash."

Sportsbook gave Paul Haggis's drama 5/2 odds -- a return of 2.5 dollars for each dollar wagered -- while Bennett Miller's "Capote" and George Clooney's "Good Night, and Good Luck" were next, both with 15/1 odds.

The last film in the best picture lineup -- Steven Spielberg's big-budget drama "Munich," based on the events following the murder of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics -- trailed the pack with 20/1 odds on its victory.

"We take into account permanent industry buzz and other awards shows, and also look at what the actual betting trends are," Erlich told AFP.

British betting giant Ladbrokes showed a similar trend, which gave "Brokeback" 1/5 odds, while "Crash" came in at 4.5/1.

Sportsbook placed 1/5 odds on Hoffman, who convincingly played eccentric US author Truman Capote, winning the best actor Academy Award, and 1/6 odds on Witherspoon, 29, taking the matching award for a leading actress.

Witherspoon's chances of winning were pegged at 1/6 by William Hill, 2/7 by Ladbrokes and 1/4 by Betfair and Pinnacle Sports.

Joaquin Phoenix, who played singer Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line," lagged behind Hoffman, with 3/1 odds on his victory, followed by Ledger at 6/1 and "Hustle and Flow" star Terrence Howard at 8/1, according to Sportsbook.

But David Strathairn, who played broadcaster Edward Murrow in "Good Night," was the "outsider," according to Sportsbook, with punters liable to reap 35 dollars for each dollar bet if he wins.

Many other online bookies, however, gave Ledger next-best odds after Hoffman for winning the best actor award, including Britain's Readabet, which gave the Aussie actor 1/6 odds compared with Hoffman's 1/7.

Punters reckon that Witherspoon's closest competition is Felicity Huffman, who movingly played a transsexual in "Transamerica."

Huffman's odds at Sportsbook were 12/5, followed by "Pride and Prejudice's" Keira Knightley at 28/1, Judi Dench of "Mrs Henderson Presents" at 30/1 and Charlize Theron of "North Country" at 32/1.

Among the directors, Sportsbook gave Lee 1/8 odds on victory, followed distantly by Spielberg at 2.5/1, Clooney at 7/1, Haggis at 25/1 and Miller, the outsider, at 30/1.

All the odds were provided by offshore bookies, as non-sporting bets are banned in the United States.

The odds suggest that this year's Oscars show may hold few dramatic twists, as punter and industry expert predictions have changed little since the nominations were unveiled on January 31.

"This year, the major categories are a 'no contest,'" said Ben Eckstein, president of America's Line, a Las Vegas-based firm with a syndicated odds column that appears in over 125 newspapers across North America.

"This year, more than any other year, is very straightforward. The favourites have been established so well that there are very few chances for surprises," Eckstein said.

But last-minute upsets are always possible, and a real battle is unfolding in the best supporting actor categories, Eckstein said.

Clooney, nominated for "Syriana," is fighting off stiff competition from "Cinderella Man's" Paul Giamatti, while supporting actress favourite Rachel Weisz must hold off "Brokeback Mountain's" Michelle Williams and "Junebug's" Amy Adams.

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