That overriding issuenot President Barack Obama, health care or the economycould cost Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine his job on Election Day.
The former Wall Street whiz, who has failed to solve the Garden State's tax woes amid a deep economic decline, is locked in a tight race with Republican Chris Christie, a corruption-busting former federal prosecutor whose main appeal appears to be that he isn't Corzine.
A moderate independent in the race, Chris Daggett, a former state and federal environmental official, has surprised the political establishment by becoming a factorand maybe a spoilerpartly because of his plan to reduce property taxes by 25 percent.
New Jersey's crushing tax burden is blamed largely on its profusion of hundreds of cities, towns, townships, boroughs and school districts, all with their own bureaucracies, overlapping authority and duplicated services.
Last year, the average bill for a homeowner was more than $7,000about twice the national average and 71 percent more than a decade earlier. It's a bill homeowners have to pay whether they get a big raise, a pink slip or a fixed pension.
"It just keeps going up," lamented Tim Nowakowski, a 52-year-old kitchen designer from Shamong who pays about $8,000 in property taxes. "Nothing goes down."
Jerry Rickleman, 46, of Paramus, said his mother and mother-in-law are both in their 80s and their property tax bills make it difficult to make ends meet. "They're both drowning here," he said.
All 21 New Jersey counties are among the 100 in the country with the highest average property tax bill. Property taxes account for more than 40 cents of every dollar New Jersey's state and local governments collect in taxes.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll had Corzine leading Christie 43 percent to 38 percent, with Daggett drawing 13 percent. It was the first time any major poll had Corzine ahead by more than the margin of error. The poll also showed Daggett not doing as well as he had in other surveys, which have shown him as high as 20 percent.
Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs CEO, has been criticized for handling the state's economic mess by striking a deal not to lay off state workers and for rolling back rebates on property taxes. He's spent more than $20 million of his own money on his campaign, most notably drawing attention for a commercial that appears to poke fun at the weight of the corpulent Christie.
Confronted with a recession, Corzine fell short on his campaign promise of four years ago to give homeowners major relief from property taxes. He also boosted taxes on cigarettes and liquor, along with the income tax for those making more than $400,000.
Corzine's opponents paint him as a governor in love with taxesor at least not tough enough to resist them.
All three men say they'd encourage more sharing of services or even mergers for the state's confounding government system that includes 566 municipalities and 603 school districts in a compact state.
Corzine is halfway through a two-year process of eliminating 26 school districts that, curiously, don't run schools. And more towns have merged services like municipal courts under his watch. Christie says he would be even more forceful in encouraging governments to share services.
The biggest share of property tax money goes to running the public schools. For years, it was routine to freeze most aid to the majority of districts when the state budget was tight. That left property taxes alone to keep up with the rising costs of running schools in a state where teachers earn an average of about $60,000, fifth in the nation.
Corzine has imposed a 4 percent per year cap on property tax increases. Both challengers say that should be even stricter.
Christie, who refers to the state's citizens as "overtaxed New Jerseyans" at every turn, says he would restore rebates and cut corporate and income taxes during his termthough likely not next year. He says he would consider many of the same measures as Corzine for balancing the budget, but would roll back the top tax rate and would not increase any other taxes.
The heart of Daggett's campaign is his plan to impose sales taxes on a broader range of services and cut property taxes by 25 percent. Daggett says that plan, combined with spending cuts and federal help, would be the keys to balancing next year's budget.
Daggett's candidacy has focused more attention on taxes in the final weeks of a nasty race.
In one ad, Corzine accused Christie of getting special treatment for traffic violationsChristie denies itwith the narrator saying the challenger "threw his weight around." Seconds later, there was unflattering footage of Christie getting out of an SUV. Talk of the ad dominated the campaign for a time, seemingly annoying all three candidates.
When Christie proposed allowing mandate-free health insurance coverage for some residents, Corzine charged that would mean women would lose coverage for mammograms. Indignant, Christie called the attack personal and pointed out that a mammogram helped catch his own mother's cancer early.
Political scientists in the state believe the scuffling over these very New Jersey issues mean that a Corzine loss would reflect anger at him, not Obama.
In campaign appearances the president has talked about how Corzine has provided some tax relief, but not everyone buys it.
Pete Stempowski of Hillsdale, who owns an energy management company, has watched his property tax bill rise from about $6,700 to about $8,900 in the past three years. And because he and his wife make more than $75,000, they didn't get a rebate this year.
Stempowski, 38, said the taxes are so troubling that he's tempted to move to his wife's native Kentucky. There, he figures, his son would still get a decent education, his garbage would still be collected and he wouldn't wonder why his property tax bill is so high.
"Where's it all going?" said Stempowski. "No one can answer that."