A new CNN/ORC poll finds Donald Trump continuing to dominate the Republican field for President. Trump has the support of a third of Republicans nationally in the crowded 17-candidate field. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a distant second, is the only other candidate to receive double-digit support. Although Jeb Bush currently sits third in the national poll, he is fast becoming the most polarizing candidate in the field. Almost half of Republicans, 47 percent, say they would be “dissatisfied” or “upset” if Bush were the nominee. Only 16 percent of Republicans would be “enthusiastic” with Bush leading the ticket.
by Mike Flynn10 Sep 2015, 8:37 AM PST0
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders, the self-proclaimed socialist from Vermont, leading presumed frontrunner Hillary Clinton by one point in Iowa. Sanders has the support of 41 percent of likely caucus voters, Hillary 40 percent and Vice President Joe Biden receives 12 percent. This poll puts Sanders ahead of Clinton in both early voting states, Iowa and New Hampshire. Voters will not elect a candidate who they don’t trust or isn’t empathetic to their lives.
by Mike Flynn10 Sep 2015, 5:50 AM PST0
Throughout the summer months, support for Jeb Bush has weakened significantly. His once dominant poll position has given way to a number of political outsiders. The super pac supporting Bush’s candidacy, Right to Rise, though, has raised well over $100 million so far. With the Labor Day holiday over, the Bush campaign is taping into that war chest.
by Mike Flynn9 Sep 2015, 5:06 AM PST0
Hillary is supported by just 42 percent of Democrats, while Biden earns 22 and Sen. Bernie Sanders nabs 20 percent. More worrisome for Hillary, 63 percent of Democrats now either back Biden or would seriously consider supporting him if he ran for the nomination.
by Mike Flynn8 Sep 2015, 10:05 AM PST0
House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell “should go” if they don’t pass conservative legislation when Congress reconvenes this week, says former businesswoman Carly Fiorina.
by Mike Flynn7 Sep 2015, 10:08 AM PST0
Two state polls from NBC/Marist, released Sunday, show Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is now ahead of Hillary by 11 points in New Hampshire, the first primary state. In Iowa, Hillary is still ahead of Sanders, but she only earns 38 percent of the vote among Hawkeye Democrats.
by Mike Flynn6 Sep 2015, 6:08 PM PST0
While certain segments of the Republican political establishment may see Jeb Bush as an obvious candidate for President, the majority of the voting public seems to have moved on. Bush’s current struggles in the polls aren’t simply a factor of the Trump phenomenon, but the inevitable result of the voters simply not liking Bush that much.
by Mike Flynn4 Sep 2015, 1:40 PM PST0
The Labor Department reports that the economy added just 173,000 jobs in August, below economists’ expectations of a 212,000 gain.
by Mike Flynn4 Sep 2015, 6:44 AM PST0
Last year, Pennsylvania enacted a $2-a-pack cigarette tax in the City of Philadelphia to help bail out the city’s troubled school system. The tax came into affect on October 1st, but the state is already moving to increase cigarette taxes statewide. Sin taxes are the last fix for profligate legislators addicted to government spending.
by Mike Flynn3 Sep 2015, 6:55 AM PST0
While the state has been dragged in and out of federal court over the past three months over its failure to comply with a consent decree reimbursing care for the developmentally disabled, the Republican appointed Comptroller, Leslie Munger, has authorized more than $1 million in grants to Planned Parenthood. The state payments were “grants,” according to the Comptroller’s records, so the money doesn’t appear to be tied to any Medicaid or other federal payment mandates.
by Mike Flynn2 Sep 2015, 10:09 AM PST0
PPP – Public Policy Polling – is unique, however, in that they use their polling, and their perceived record of accuracy, to actively push a Democrat agenda. On Tuesday, PPP made its first effort to try to affect the GOP primary contest, rather than simply measuring its state of play. It ventured into the world of messaging by also asking voters whether or not they thought Barack Obama was a Muslim or if they believed he was born in the United States.
by Mike Flynn2 Sep 2015, 6:58 AM PST0
Keep in mind, much of this groundswell against the Republican establishment has occurred in August, while Congress has been in recess. Next week, however, Congress returns to tackle, among other items, Obama’s deal to lift sanctions on Iran and government spending for the year. Another replay of Republican leaders tendency to avoid confrontation with Obama will super-charge outsiders’ momentum.
by Mike Flynn1 Sep 2015, 6:58 AM PST0
A new Monmouth University poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa confirms what anecdotes suggest; base Republican voters have a serious problem with their own elected officials. The top four candidates in the Republican primary, three of whom have never held elective office, together win the support of 65 percent of Republicans in the state.
by Mike Flynn31 Aug 2015, 2:48 PM PST0
A new Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll finds Carson closing the gap with frontrunner Trump. Carson has 18 percent support among likely caucus-goers, while Trump has 23 percent support. Combining the first and second choices of voters shows the two men tied at 32 percent.
by Mike Flynn31 Aug 2015, 9:33 AM PST0
The 2008 Democrat nomination was permanently reshuffled when Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Caucus. Obama’s win surprised pundits at the time, but a new poll from Bloomberg/Des Moines Register suggests another Hillary defeat is possible. This potential upset is being broadcast five months early.
by Mike Flynn29 Aug 2015, 6:16 PM PST0
The deadlock is almost an existential disagreement between Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democrat leadership in the state Legislature.
by Mike Flynn29 Aug 2015, 11:41 AM PST0
At the end of May, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio led the GOP field. He was followed closely by Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Walker and Rubio were close to tied, given the margin of error. Donald Trump was in the back of the pack, polling behind former New York Gov. George Pataki.
by Mike Flynn28 Aug 2015, 9:53 AM PST0
For almost a decade, the Republican party has interpreted losses at the ballot box as its inability to attract Hispanic voters. This, in turn, is blamed on segments of the conservative wing of the party whose rhetoric allegedly turns off Hispanic voters. When conservatives empower a Republican victory, as in 2004, 2010 or 2014, the win is dismissed as almost an aberration. Oh, that victory you have there is because Hispanics didn’t vote, Republican leaders imply.
by Mike Flynn27 Aug 2015, 12:52 PM PST0
Hillary is still popular with Democrats and continues to post a strong lead in the race for the Democrat nomination. Less than 30 percent of Independents, though, have a favorable impression of Clinton. Just over 60 percent have an unfavorable view of her. Fewer than 1-in-10 Independents aren’t sure how they view her, meaning she will have to change voters’ minds about her to be competitive next November.
by Mike Flynn27 Aug 2015, 12:24 PM PST0
The unmistakable trend in current polling for the nomination is that the closer candidates are perceived to be to the GOP leadership, the less support they have from Republican voters. The top two candidates in the RealClearPolitics average of polls are Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, released Thursday, the two candidates command 40% of support out of a crowded field of 17 candidates.
by Mike Flynn27 Aug 2015, 8:19 AM PST0
A new poll from Quinnipiac suggests the speculation about a possible presidential run by Vice President Joe Biden isn’t going away as we pass Labor Day. While Hillary Clinton still leads the race for the Democrat nomination, Biden performs better against potential GOP rivals than Clinton. The existential challenge for Clinton is that she is considered the least honest and trustworthy of any candidate running, in either party. Almost 70 percent of Independent voters don’t consider her honest.
by Mike Flynn27 Aug 2015, 6:25 AM PST0
The national political dialogue is centered on which candidate is up or down in various national, and specific state level, polls. Yet when voting begins in about 5 months, the path to the Republican nomination won’t be as simple as coming out on top in final polling, or even voting on election day. First, a candidate must survive a complex nominating process.
by Mike Flynn26 Aug 2015, 5:13 AM PST0
While the massive sell-offs in China may be the catalyst for the current turmoil, the market downturns are long overdue. Over the last 7 years, the markets have been driven higher by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. The underlying economy has never caught up to the historically high valuations in the stock market. As the economist Herb Stein dryly noted, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” A stock market separated from fundamental economic reality cannot go on forever. It is stopping.
by Mike Flynn25 Aug 2015, 5:23 AM PST0
Jeb’s raffle is a brutal reminder that the presumptive frontrunner doesn’t understand the party he is seeking to lead into the next Presidential contest. Colbert has played a significant role in dumbing-down political discourse in this country. His celebrity is based on his success skewering conservatives on his eponymous Comedy Central show. While his show was never a ratings success, it played a pivotal role in establishing media narratives against conservative politicians and conservative policy positions.
by Mike Flynn25 Aug 2015, 5:12 AM PST0
The 2016 election is very likely to be a crisis election, with voters looking for leadership in an anxious world. Another financial crisis, or a series of crises, seems certain to dominate the next Presidential election. The slowing of growth in China, the devaluation of its currency and the exhaustion of Central Bank printing presses will wreck havoc on world markets and lead to multiple bankruptcies.
by Mike Flynn24 Aug 2015, 9:37 AM PST0
