This Week's Elections: Tea Party Post Mortem

Doug Hoffman lost his race in the 23rd Congressional District of New York, a seat held by Republicans for the past 120 years. John McHugh held the seat since 1992 and won with such large margins (he was even unopposed in 2002) that when I pitched him to provide polling for his campaign, it was a challenge to even argue why he needed polling in the first place.

Dede Scozzafava was chased out of the race by conservative Tea Party activists. Her campaign may have been inept, and local GOP leaders may have erred in selecting her, but activists had no business dictating terms from afar. Despite her flaws, Scozzafava was ahead in the polls before the Tea Party brouhaha. (So much for respecting local control.) Their result was to actually shrink the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives. (Moreover, the newly-elected Democrat Congressman Bill Owens may provide the deciding vote on passing Pelosi Care, up for debate tonight in the House.) Just as conservative Democrats voted for Speaker Pelosi, liberal Republicans like Scozzafava would have supported the Party’s leadership. A RINO is better than no R at all. The good news is that the district is likely to support the Republican candidate in 2010 after what I suspect will be a vigorous primary.

The most laughable criticism of Scozzafava was that she showed no loyalty to conservatives by endorsing the Democrat in the race–this from Tea Partiers who showed no loyalty to the Republican Party by pushing a third party candidate in the first place.

Here in Missouri, activists were pleased with national results. Twitter was rife with self-congratulatory chatter. One wrote, “Obama’s most significant accomplish? Re-awaking the conservative movement.” Even Missouri’s Lt. Governor Peter Kinder emailed, “This was a referendum on the direction Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama are taking our nation. Voters are upset with the failed stimulus, the government’s proposed takeover of our health care system, and the national energy tax known as ‘cap and trade.'”

My fear is that Tea Parties will be so enamored with national politics that they will miss opportunities to win real and lasting victories in state and city races. In Missouri smoldered the ruins of what could have been Tea Party victories: a quarter-cent sales tax in Jackson County won renewal (with 71%) despite the funds once being the subject of a grand jury investigation; usually conservative Springfield passed a new sales tax during a recession (with 55%); and St. Louis passed a smoking ban (with 65%) generally regarded by us righties as an affront to liberty. If this is the “re-awakening of the conservative movement” in a red state that voted for McCain, I fear for the future.

There is a year left before the 2010 elections–and Tuesday should offer a powerful lesson to activists everywhere. Namely, there is no substitute for hard work in smaller local races that actually have an impact on people and their pocketbooks. Activists need to identify potential candidates and campaign staffers in their own neighborhoods, focus on the issues and races where they are best equipped to make a difference and not let small differences overshadow what we have in common.