Four States Can Stop Lame Duck Threat

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn made it official: Illinois will have a special Senate election just for the lame duck session. Thus Illinois joins Delaware and West Virginia (both having special elections) as the three states whose winners on election day will–barring a disputed election result–be seated for a lame duck session in December. A fourth, Colorado, is less clear but may also be in play.

The lame duck session looks increasingly likely–and increasingly ambitious. Sen. Kerry continues to stress that cap-and-trade will be on the agenda, and Sen. Harry Reid (who may be a lame duck himself after Election Day) confirmed it to the Netroots Nation audience, saying: “We’re going to have to have a lame-duck session, so we’re not giving up.”

Along with cap-and-trade, a lame duck will likely consider the recommendations of Obama’s deficit commission — a package that will include enormous tax hikes and could draw the support of some departing Republicans like Judd Gregg of New Hampshire George Voinovich of Ohio, and Robert Bennett of Utah.

And organized labor, seeing the lame duck as their last chance for a legislative return on their political investments for years, will also demand lame duck action.

While Sen. Tom Harkin is still promising some version of card check, more likely is Sen. Bob Casey’s proposed union pension bailout, S. 3157, which would relieve unions of their pension obligations – with a potential price tag for taxpayers in the hundreds of billions. Democratic Whip Dick Durbin signed on as a co-sponsor yesterday, indicating this bill is a top priority.

The winners in Delaware, Illinois, and West Virginia could be the vital deciding votes on these major policy issues.

In Delaware, Republican Christine O’Donnell has publicly committed to opposing any policy change in a lame duck session, and has been especially vocal about stopping cap-and-trade. Her primary opponent, Mike Castle, voted for cap-and-trade in the House last year and, unless he makes a strong public commitment, is at risk of voting for it again in a lame duck session. Castle must match O’Donnell’s promise to voters and commit to opposing any policy changes in a lame duck session. He must promise voters he will not help Democratic leadership disregard a national election.

In Illinois, Mark Kirk will be the Republican nominee for both the special election to complete President Obama’s term in the lame duck and the new six-year term to start in January. Kirk, like Castle, voted for cap-and-trade in the House last year. Unlike Castle, however, Kirk is now publicly committed to opposing cap-and-trade, and has even put that commitment in writing by signing the www.NoClimateTax.com pledge. He should go further and make a clear public commitment to oppose any policy change in the lame duck.

West Virginia will have a special primary August 28 to determine its candidates, and the frontrunners are Republican businessman John Raese and Democratic Governor Joe Manchin. Manchin is running as a conservative, and the lame duck should be a major issue in the campaign and a test of Manchin’s willingness to buck the national Democratic Party to do what’s right. If Manchin refuses to make a strong commitment to vote no on major policy changes in a lame duck, voters concerned about cap-and-trade and other threats may well consider voting Republican.

There could be a fourth seat in play for the lame duck: Colorado. If appointed Senator Michael Bennet loses his first election bid there, tradition suggests he should resign and allow the winner to be seated for the lame duck.

The last time an appointed senator lost a bid for a full term was in Nebraska in 1988, when David Karnes (R) lost to Bob Kerrey (D). Karnes resigned on Election Day. It happened twice in 1978, in Minnesota where Wendy Anderson (DFL) lost to Rudy Boschwitz (R) and in Montana where Paul Hatfield (D) lost his primary to Max Baucus (D). Both appointed senators resigned in December.

The last time an appointed senator lost a bid for a full term and refused to resign was in 1970, when New York’s Robert Goodell (R) lost to Jim Buckley (C). Goodell remained in office for that year’s lame duck session, an ambitious lame duck driven by President Nixon’s agenda — not a proud model for Bennet to follow. Colorado voters should demand Bennet promise to respect the election results by resigning if he is rejected by voters in his first election to the office of U.S. Senator.

Candidates in the states with an opportunity to derail the lame duck – Delaware, Illinois, West Virginia, and Colorado – would be well-served to make a clear, public commitment to doing so and make it an issue in their campaigns. Voters, in turn, should understand that before we can begin the next Congress can begin the difficult work of undoing this Congress’s big government policies, we need to hold the line against a lame duck session.