Early Returns in Colorado.. as of 7:30pm Mountain

Polls have closed in CO and returns are trickling in….

So far, it APPEARS that Dem stronghold of Boulder and/or Denver city/county is being reported, as the results seem very heavy toward the Dems – far beyond even the most optimistic Dem polls. As Denver is the largest city/county, it will skew results quite a bit.

Governor:

Hickenlooper 57%

Tancredo 31%

Maes 9%

Senate:

Bennet 54%

Buck 41%

This is gonna be a long, cool night here in the mountains, so stay tuned. We have a lot to do to cover the initiatives as well as all the races.

EARLIER TODAY, I HAD A CHANCE TO INTERVIEW BOB BEAUPREZ, FORMER CONGRESSMAN-

I just finished a phone interview with former Colorado congressman Bob Beauprez, who represented Colorado from the 7th district when it was formed. Mr. Beauprez has had a front-row seat in this election cycle; in the 2008 cycle he was the GOP representative for Governor, losing to Bill Ritter who is not seeking re-election this time.

I asked him about both the national and state races, and he characterized them as being far “swifter and stronger” than what he experienced in either ’02 running for Congress or ’06 running for governor. He said temperatures this time around are far higher, and are, at least on the GOP side, as high as the Dems had it in ’08.

He further characterized the cause of this turn-around as being caused by the “over-reaching, over-done” agenda of the Democrats, “whether they be in the State or National congresses. Cap and Trade, Obamacare, taxes, budget, you name it, they went far beyond what the public felt was their want.” And when they did anything, mentioning the budget, it ”did nothing or worse.”

”By shoving all of these highly unpopular programs down the throat of the public, they’ve taken us into uncharted territory” he continued. ”And they are seeing the effects of this now.”

He talked about the polls, and what they are showing both for Colorado and nationally- that the latest polls from Gallup, out yesterday, are surprising even him. That with a 15-pt generic advantage, and 7% enthusiasm gap, ”we are likely in for a big night”.

I asked him what he thought the GOP was likely to gain on House seats for the night- he said ”I originally thought that 55 seats would have been a big night, given what the polling was showing going into October; but with Gallup trending what it has, anything north of 60 is possible.”

”With CD7 in play, if that one goes to Ryan [Frazier] that could be a bellwether for a 70-seat plus night for the Republicans.”

In the Senate, he said 7-9 is most certainly the most dependable number to gain, and getting 10 would be ”difficult to do, but not impossible.” He said there are 3 races to watch that, if they break for the GOP, would indicate a huge night- Toomey, in PA, McMahon in CT, and Raese in WV. ”If those go GOP, 10 seats is obtainable” he said.

I asked him what race would show a surprise- and his answer was interesting: ”The O’Donnell race- if that one is within 5 points -she doesn’t even have to win- that is a huge loss for the Democrats.”

Back in Colorado, he says the congressional race to watch is the Perlmutter/Frazier race in CD7- a relatively new district that has shown it is a definitive swing district- voting for Mr. Beauprez in 2002, and then going to Perlmutter in 2006 when Beauprez ran for governor. ”Ryan has a real chance of taking this district, based on the wave, and if he does, we could end up with 80 seats in the House as a result” he said. ”Perlmutter voted with Steny Hoyer, the measure we used, 98% of the time on over 1350 votes in the house. That shows he voted with the Democrat party more than even Dianne DeGette (CO1).”

”This 2010 election cycle is just a warm-up for the 2012 elections; this is likely just a measure of things to come in 2012” he said as I asked him about the impact of the TEA Party. Did he think the TEA Party will have a lasting impact?

”I hope so- and I think so” he said. ”They are bringing in some future leadership and strong help that I welcome into the Colorado political scene” he went on. ”We have a lot to do going forward.”

I hope to have more from Mr Beauprez as the night goes on…

A TIPSTER SENT THE FOLLOWING EARLIER THIS EVENING:

From a tipster: The Colorado Secretary of State’s office has said that 1.8m early-voter ballots were received as of noon today; that is on track to beat the mid-term 2006 races handily in overall votes cast. ABC news locally is reporting that as of noon, just under 74,o00 more Republican votes had been cast, statewide, than Democrat.

Given the polling and the numbers turning out, and the modeling that was run by tipster, 2 races of note are going to turn in favor of the Republicans- this tipster, a key ‘party member’, has John Salazar, D, LOSING to Scott Tipton, R, in CO-3. This is a HUGE upset, as the large Salazar presence in Colorado was previously seen as nearly insurmountable. While the polls have not closed as yet, given the turnout and the models run, I would safely agree this is a strong possibility here.

In the other race, the tipster has Ryan Frazier, R, DEFEATING Ed Perlmutter, R, in CO-7 by 4 points. All of this is based on the fact that their worst-case scenarios were not “worst-case” enough.

This is working out to be a huge night- in my earlier interview, former Congressman Bob Beauprez predicted that if Frazier won, there would easily be a 70-seat win by Republicans in the house; that CO-7 seat would indicate to him just how big the “wave” was going to be…

Reports have Nancy Pelosi saying she’s “comfortable she’s going to be Speaker in the morning.” Well, she’s right. But only until January… She’s become the Baghdad Bob of election night tonight…