Though statistically tied in a head-to-head match up, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown currently enjoys a 60% job approval rating in Massachusetts, while his likely opponent, Elizabeth Warren, has seen her negatives climb nine points to 32%, with 31% of independent voters stating the controversy surrounding her heritage make them less likely to vote for her.
All bad news.
But the number I find most surprising is Warrens’ “personal popularity” rating in the state:
Still, the bottom line is that the race remains a toss-up, with Brown leading Warren 39 percent to 37 percent, largely unchanged from the Globe’s March poll that also showed Brown leading by two percentage points. …
The Harvard professor’s popularity has also risen one percentage point, to 48 percent, since the Globe polled in March, but the percentage of detractors has climbed more precipitously, by nine points to 32 percent.
Warren is a Democrat star, a shining light in the party with a solid academic resume. Harry Reid appointed Warren to oversee TARP. She’s also taken credit for the formation of Occupy Wall Street, was crucial in the formation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and was even martyred by Republicans who filibustered Obama’s effort to appoint her to that same bureau.
And her “personal popularity” rating is only 48% … in Massachusetts?
This tells me she is in much more trouble than the other numbers in the poll indicate, and those numbers still don’t look very good for her.
This weekend, Massachusetts Democrats convene their convention to officially choose who will go up against Brown in November. How well Warren does or doesn’t do will be telling. She does have a rival for the nomination, Marisa DeFranco, who needs to win only 15% of the delegates to force a September 6 primary election.
With a primary challenger and Warren’s explanations about her Cherokee heritage only raising more and more questions, what looked like a no-brainer Senate pick up just a few weeks ago is now looking like an embarrassment for Warren, her party, and the overall absurdity of identity politics.