This race was always going to tighten, and it looks as though it finally has: it is well within the poll’s 2.8% margin of error:
PPP’s final poll on the Wisconsin recall finds Scott Walker ahead, but also a race that’s tightening. Walker leads Tom Barrett 50-47. That’s down from 50-45 on a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago and it’s also down from a 52-45 lead that Walker posted in a Marquette Law poll released last week.
Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday’s election than Democrats are. Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin. It’s cliche but this is a race that really is going to completely come down to turnout.
Walker has a 51/47 approval rating. He’s up with men (55-42), whites (52-46), seniors (58-39), and especially voters in the Milwaukee suburbs (70/29).
In elections, it’s fairly standard for incumbents to do about as well as their job approval rating. Walker currently sits at 51% and, in a head-to-head match up with his opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Walker is squeaking by at 50%.
It’s rare that undecideds go for the known quantity — the incumbent.
While many of the tea leaves have looked good for our side over the past few weeks, reports on the ground show that unions and Democrats have been aggressively canvassing and driving voters to early polling stations.
Turnout, turnout, turnout.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC