Today, as the GOP convention gets underway, CBS News released its latest poll on the presidential race. The survey of registered voters found Obama clinging to a 1-point lead over Romney, 46-45. It’s noteworthy that CBS did not team up with New York Times on this poll. Perhaps as a result, the partisan sample in the poll is a reasonable D+2, rather than the D+7-9 sample used in their polls with The Times. While Obama has a slim lead among all registered voters, he continues to struggle with Independents.
Obama has an-8-point favorability rating among Independents, 35-43. Among all registered votes, Obama’s favorability is -3 points, 41-44. On the question of whether Obama has a “clear plan for creating jobs,” voters have an overwhelmingly negative impression. By 23 points, voters say Obama does not have a clear plan, 35-58. Among independents, the gap is an even wider 28 points, 31-59. Jobs and economy will be the single biggest issue driving voters in November. Even almost a third of Democrat voters, 28%, think Obama doesn’t have a clear plan for creating jobs. If almost 60% voters go into the voting booth believing that Obama has no clear plan on the issue, it will be very difficult for him to win reelection.
One negative for Romney also provides him an extraordinary opportunity during the convention. Currently, only 67% of GOP voters have a favorable impression of him. 27% of GOP voters are undecided or say they need more information. As the GOP rallies throughout the convention, the number of GOP voters with a favorable view of Romney should jump considerably. Movement in this number alone may be enough to give Romney a significant post-convention bounce in the polls.