At the end of last week, Barack Obama held a 3-point lead over Mitt Romney in Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking poll. Romney, however, is enjoying a modest bounce from the RNC convention and today, has reversed the numbers and now leads Obama by 3 points. In other words, a six point swing to Romney during convention week.
I should note, however, that Rasmussen’s tracking poll is based on a three-day average, so most of the interviews in today’s poll were conducted before Romney formally accepted the GOP nomination on Thursday. That night, featuring speeches by Romney, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Clint Eastwood and personal testimonials was the strongest night of the convention. The full extent of Romney’s bounce won’t likely be known until Monday and Tuesday, just as the Democrats are set to begin their convention in Charlotte.
A 6+ poll bounce is a bit higher than the average from recent conventions. Comparisons, though, are a little shaky as recent nominees have announced their running mate selection in the days leading up to the convention. As a result, some portion of a nominee’s post-convention bounce includes positive feedback from the VP selection. Romney, however, announced Ryan several weeks ago, so that was already baked into the numbers.
Romney’s convention did what conventions are supposed to do; unite and energize the party’s rank and file supporters. The other important task, especially for GOP nominees, is to begin going around the media to speak directly to independents and any undecided voters. The one week shift in the polls indicates that Romney succeeded.