I know the media is telling us that Romney didn’t receive a bounce in the polls after the RNC convention last week. Yet, a new poll released last night by CNN suggests otherwise. 53% of likely voters now have a favorable impression of Romney, against 43% who view him unfavorably. Before the convention, Romney’s favorables were 50/46. This is a six-point improvement in his favorables. In other words, a bounce.
Moreover, Romney’s favorables are significantly better than Obama’s. 51% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Obama, while 48% are unfavorable. This is down slightly from the week before Tampa, when his favorables were 52/47.
In the head-to-head match-up, Romney and Obama are tied at 48% among likely voters. The week before the convention, Obama led by 2 points. Interestingly, CNN also reports the match-up among registered voters, which shows Obama leading Romney by 7 points, 52-45. This shows how misleading polls of just registered voters can be. Soon, polls will start moving to a likely voter screen, which will provide a general bump to Romney’s poll numbers.
Romney is leading seniors by 10 points, 53-43 and 35-49 year olds by 13, 55-42. He also leads Independents by 10 points, 52-42. Obama’s favorability among Independents is -7, 46-53, while Romney’s is +28, 60-32. This could very well be the most crucial finding in the poll.