Poll: Brown Leads Warren by Four in MA Senate Race

The University of Massachusetts-Lowell/Boston Herald poll released on Wednesday shows incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown leads Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by four points, 49% to 45%, among likely Massachusetts voters.

The Boston Herald reported on the results of the poll: 

The poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, shows nearly one in three Brown backers say they could change their mind before Election Day, compared to just 19 percent for Warren. But the poll, which started a week after the Democratic National Convention, finds no evidence of a “bounce” for Warren.

There also is some troubling news for the well-financed Warren campaign. Despite spending millions of dollars to tarnish Brown’s image, the GOP incumbent’s popularity has actually increased in the past nine months.

Brown is now viewed favorably by 57 percent of registered voters, up nine points from a UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll conducted in December 2011. Brown’s unfavorable rating actually has dropped six points to 29 percent. He is also drawing 22 percent of voters who say they will vote for President Obama. 

The poll results were welcome news to the Brown campaign. Three recent  polls released over the past week showed Warren, not Brown, in the lead by a few points.

Joe Battenfeld, the reporter who wrote the Boston Herald story, offered this video commentary on the key reason for Brown’s resurgence. He now holds a vast lead among men:

The UMass Lowell/Herald poll shows Brown also is benefiting from a huge gender gap — among men.

The GOP incumbent holds a 20-point lead among male voters, a huge advantage heading down the stretch. Warren, however, has not built up a similar advantage among female voters, holding just a seven-point lead over Brown. In the December 2011 poll, Warren held an 18-point lead among women.