Public Policy Polling (PPP), the liberal polling outfit, conducted a D+7 poll this weekend that found President Barack Obama with a one-point lead over Mitt Romney (49%-48%) in Iowa. Romney led by 8 points among independents. On Friday, PPP released an R+4 poll that had Romney leading by one, which means after an 11-point swing in its sample, Obama only gained 2 points in Iowa.
The poll’s partisan breakdown defies logic unless one reasonably believes there is going to be more enthusiasm for Obama — seven times as much! — in Iowa in 2012 as there was in 2008.
One person who does not believe there will be is Iowa’s own Democratic Party Chairwoman, Sue Dvorsky, who, when asked if Obama was replicating 2008’s voter enthusiasm in the state, said, “Nobody feels that,” in an interview with Bloomberg News last week.
In 2010, Republicans had a four-point advantage while Democrats had a one-point advantage in 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama’s candidacy was at its peak. So it is fair to assume that the partisan breakdown in November will be somewhere between D+1 and R 4.
And when PPP conducted a poll with an R 4 poll in Iowa that it released last Friday, it found Romney leading by one-point.