Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by two points (49%-47%) in a D+7 poll of likely Virginia voters conducted by Wenzel Strategies, a firm that polls for conservatives and whose polls have had a high level of accuracy during the last election cycle.
The poll’s partisan breakdown was: 46% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 15% independent.
And in what may be the poll’s most significant finding, Obama only leads Romney by four points in vote-rich Northern Virginia. Obama needs to run up his margins in Northern Virginia, which is more liberal than the rest of the state, and a four-point lead there will not be enough on election day for him to prevail. In comparison, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), the Democrat running for Senate against Republican George Allen, leads Allen by 11 points in Northern Virginia, outperforming Obama by 7 points.
Romney also wins 16% of Democrats while Obama only wins 9% of Republicans, and Romney leads by 16 points among independents (53%-37%).
Wenzel Strategies surveyed 1000 likely voters in Virginia on October 19-20 and the poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.07 percentage points.
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