In a D+4 Virginia poll, Public Policy Polling (PPP) found President Barack Obama had a five-point lead over Mitt Romney, but these numbers — and the partisan breakdown of the poll — are highly suspect because the same poll found Obama underperforming among black voters.
Black voters were the most enthusiastic about Obama’s candidacy in 2008. And in Virginia, blacks made up 20% of the electorate and gave Obama 92% of the vote against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).
In PPP’s most recent poll, Obama gets 88% support among blacks in Virginia while Romney receives 8%, which is what McCain received in 2008.
In 2008, Democrats had a 6-point advantage over Republicans in Virginia and Obama carried the state by seven points, but if Obama’s most loyal and enthusiastic supporters — black voters — are less enthusiastic about his candidacy, it is safe to assume other parts of his coalition in Virginia — college students, affluent whites, and women — will be as well. This means it is unlikely Democrats will have anywhere near the seven-point advantage they had in 2008 at the polls in November.
PPP surveyed 722 likely Virginia voters on October 23-24 on behalf of Health Care for American Now and the poll’s margin of error is +/-3.6%.